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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
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AA MC Allen vs CostaMain Card · Featherweight CD DS Doo-ho vs SantosMain Card · Featherweight MW JD Wellmaker vs DíazMain Card · Bantamweight TC BS Cuamba vs SopajMain Card · Bantamweight TT IE Tokkos vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight KV JC Vieira vs CavalcantiPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight CB AP Brundage vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight AA PV Ardelean vs VianaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight DB LG Barez vs GurulePreliminary Card · Flyweight SB NC Bannon vs CaliariPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight KW NV Williams vs VeretennikovMain Card · Welterweight MB CE Bukauskas vs EdwardsMain Card · Catchweight TG AM Gantt vs MinevPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE We back Ardelean over Viana · Women'S Strawweight Our fair value$1.44 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.55
Where to back Ardelean best price · region · EV vs fair $1.44
US BetOnline.ag $1.54 +7%
UK Grosvenor $1.53 +7%
EU Pinnacle $1.55 +8%
AU Bet Right $1.54 +7%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.52
Consensus86 picks · conf 80/99
Ardelean 70
16 Viana
MBJWA2 pick Ardelean
How it endsmethod calls · Ardelean · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $19.38
Submission 2 $19.38
Decision 23 $1.68
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ardelean 12-7 VS 13-8 Viana
5'3" height 5'5"
116 lb weight 115 lb
62" reach 67"
34 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
6.0 strikes landed / min 3.0
50% striking accuracy 40%
3.7 strikes absorbed / min 2.6
48% striking defence 53%
2.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
33% takedown accuracy 33%
72% takedown defence 38%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market70% vs 65%
Consensus70 of 86 analysts
Sharpest angleArdelean by Decision — 23 of 27 method calls
Recommendation Back Ardelean @ $1.55 · fair $1.44 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RR Rising the Ranks picks Alice Ardelean “my final pick is Alice Ardelean by decision”
BM Bum MMA picks Alice Ardelean “I think she's going to beat Polyana Viana via decision.”
UB UFC Brasil picks Polyana Viana “Polyana Viana versus Alice Ardelean.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Alice Ardelean “Alice Ardelean, by decision”
RS Round 3: Prediction Show picks Alice Ardelean “Alice Ardelean versus Polyana Viana. I'm going to pick Alice Ardelean in that fight.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Polyana Viana “I think Polyana Viana can win this fight.”
PH Philyflishow999 picks Alice Ardelean “NOT_IN_ROSTER_5, I think gets the win on Saturday.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Polyana Viana VALUE “Both of us like her as underdogs this weekend” $2.76
AU Austin picks Alice Ardelean “I'm going to go with Alice Ardelean to get the win over Polyana Viana.”
TS The Sports Scientist picks Alice Ardelean “I'm going to go with Alice Ardelean by decision here”
HZ Hank's War Zone picks Alice Ardelean “we have Alice Ardelean trust Alice Ardelean here to beat her... give me Alice Ardelean”
BP Beats Rhymes & Parlays picks Alice Ardelean “I like Alice Ardelean to win this fight. ... So, give me Alice Ardelean. Uh rocking, man. So, we got Alice Ardelean, guaranteed money.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ardelean12-7
W Viana Submission · R2 May '26
W Ruiz Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Santos Decision · R3 May '25
L Martinez Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Bannon Decision · R3 Jul '24
Viana13-8
L Ardelean Submission · R2 May '26
L Amorim Submission · R2 Apr '25
L Robertson KO/TKO · R2 Jan '24
L Lucindo Submission · R2 Aug '23
W Frey KO/TKO · R1 Nov '22