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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
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MK KH Kape vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight IC NS Cuțelaba vs StirlingMain Card · Light Heavyweight AF VO Fili vs OliveiraMain Card · Featherweight HA CR Amil vs RodriguezMain Card · Featherweight AL KB Lima vs BorjasPreliminary Card · Catchweight MB MM Baghdasaryan vs MagomedovMain Card · Featherweight BM MM Mesquita vs MullinsPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AN MR Nascimento vs RaposoPreliminary Card · Flyweight GB MJ Bolaños vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Featherweight KR LS Rosa vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight LS LC Shahbazyan vs ChokheliPreliminary Card · Welterweight SC OT Collins vs TanziloviPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Horiguchi over Kape · Flyweight Our fair value$2.36 TAB pays above fair $2.40
Where to back Horiguchi best price · region · EV vs fair $2.36
US Hard Rock Bet $2.35 -1%
UK LiveScore Bet $2.35 -1%
EU Betsson $2.40 +2%
AU TAB $2.40 +2%
Consensus109 picks · conf 90/99
Kape 60
49 Horiguchi
GCmYMM pick Kape
How it endsmethod calls · Horiguchi · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $54.39
Submission 6 $9.06
Decision 16 $3.40
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Kape 22-7 VS 36-5 Horiguchi
5'5" height 5'4"
126 lb weight 126 lb
68" reach 63"
32 age 35
Southpaw stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 3.6
53% striking accuracy 45%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
59% striking defence 62%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.0
33% takedown accuracy 44%
73% takedown defence 55%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market42% vs 42%
Consensus49 of 109 analysts
Sharpest angleHoriguchi by Decision — 16 of 23 method calls
Recommendation Back Horiguchi @ $2.40 · fair $2.36 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RS Round 3: Prediction Show picks Manel Kape VALUE “that's my value play in this fight is Manel Kape to win in the fourth round, fifth round or by decision at a plus 170” $2.70
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Manel Kape “I'm actually going to get give Manel Kape uh a round two KO”
YA YapMMA picks Kyoji Horiguchi “Give me Kyoji Kyoji Horiguchi by decision as the official prediction.”
VO volksleftnut picks Kyoji Horiguchi “I'm going Kyoji Horiguchi decision, close fight. Um but I think Horiguchi gets it done by decision.”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Manel Kape “I do think Manel Kape finds finds the success, outlands him, pushes that kind of pace where he's just going to overvol him and probably get a late knockout.”
JU JuicyMMA picks Manel Kape “I would lean towards a round three TKO finish for Manel Kape.”
TM Tap That MMA picks Kyoji Horiguchi “Koji Kyoji Horiguchi Moneyline is fine.”
TM Tap That MMA picks Manel Kape “Manel Kape Money Line by knockout or by decision.”
HB Half The Battle picks Manel Kape “I'm going to go Manel Kape to come out here, knock out Kyoji Horiguchi, and secure that title shot.”
KU Kunath picks Kyoji Horiguchi “I know people are going to want to play Kyoji Horiguchi this week. Obviously, you have to, right? He's a best fighter, if not second best fighter on the card.”
MK MMA Kay picks Manel Kape “I see a late finish here. I think Manel Kape is gonna KO Kyoji Horiguchi Origuchi like in the fourth or fifth round.”
MT MMA Tugg picks Kyoji Horiguchi VALUE “my dog of the week is Kyoji Horiguchi. The Gooch is loose.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Kape22-7
W Horiguchi KO/TKO · R3 Jun '26
W Royval KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Almabayev KO/TKO · R3 Mar '25
W Silva KO/TKO · R3 Dec '24
L Mokaev Decision · R3 Jul '24
Horiguchi36-5
L Kape KO/TKO · R3 Jun '26
W Albazi Decision · R3 Feb '26
W Ulanbekov Submission · R3 Nov '25
W Bagautinov Decision · R3 Nov '16
W Seery Decision · R3 May '16