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MK KH Kape vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight IC NS Cuțelaba vs StirlingMain Card · Light Heavyweight AF VO Fili vs OliveiraMain Card · Featherweight HA CR Amil vs RodriguezMain Card · Featherweight AL KB Lima vs BorjasPreliminary Card · Catchweight MB MM Baghdasaryan vs MagomedovMain Card · Featherweight BM MM Mesquita vs MullinsPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AN MR Nascimento vs RaposoPreliminary Card · Flyweight GB MJ Bolaños vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Featherweight KR LS Rosa vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight LS LC Shahbazyan vs ChokheliPreliminary Card · Welterweight SC OT Collins vs TanziloviPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Santos over Rosa · Women'S Bantamweight Our fair value$1.89 Fliff pays above fair $2.10
Where to back Santos best price · region · EV vs fair $1.89
US Fliff $2.10 +11%
UK Virgin Bet $2.00 +6%
EU Betsson $2.00 +6%
AU TABtouch $2.00 +6%
Consensus84 picks · conf 80/99
Rosa 30
54 Santos
GYSMCJ pick Rosa
How it endsmethod calls · Santos · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $39.67
Decision 20 $1.98
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Rosa 19-7 VS 10-2 Santos
5'5" height 5'6"
136 lb weight 136 lb
67" reach 67"
31 age 26
Orthodox stance Orthodox
6.5 strikes landed / min 4.3
56% striking accuracy 51%
4.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
49% striking defence 61%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 1.6
46% takedown accuracy 40%
68% takedown defence 80%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market53% vs 48%
Consensus54 of 84 analysts
Sharpest angleSantos by Decision — 20 of 21 method calls
Recommendation Back Santos @ $2.10 · fair $1.89 +11% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Luana Santos VALUE “I'm really liking Luana Santos in this fight. Um, she I think this could be a boring fight, especially if Luana Santos wants to make it a boring fight. Um, but I think I'm gonna go with Luana Santos by decision here.”
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Karol Rosa “I'm going to take Karol Rosa here. Um I think she just gets it done.”
YA YapMMA picks Karol Rosa “I'm going to go with Karol Rosa to win this fight.”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Karol Rosa “give me Karol Rosa to get the job done at minus 120.” $1.83
MP MPSO picks Luana Santos “I think I'm going to pick Luana Santos just cuz I think she'll probably have some control time on the fence, maybe in the ground. Maybe just barely scratch by this fight just with control time.”
TM Tap That MMA picks Karol Rosa “any money I put down was on Karol Rosa.”
HB Half The Battle picks Luana Santos “I'm actually I'm actually going to go Luana Santos to get this upset here.”
KU Kunath picks Luana Santos VALUE “7,900 Luana Santos seems like a great value play.”
KU Kunath picks Karol Rosa “If Karol Rosa goes out there and wins the fight, which Karol Rosa does not win fights and score a few points.”
MK MMA Kay picks Luana Santos VALUE “I'm going to go with Luana Santos.” $2.05
TP Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Luana Santos “Give me Luana Santos 2928 split decision against Karol Rosa and what I think is a close fight.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Luana Santos VALUE “I'm going to go with the dog uh with more finishing upside.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Rosa19-7
L Santos Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Cornolle Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Pérez Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Kianzad Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Aldana Decision · R3 Dec '23
Santos10-2
W Rosa Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Croden Decision · R3 Dec '25
W Lisboa Submission · R2 May '25
L O'Neill Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Agapova Submission · R1 Jul '24