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Nascimento vs RaposoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Kape vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight
IC
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Cuțelaba vs StirlingMain Card · Light Heavyweight
AF
VO
Fili vs OliveiraMain Card · Featherweight
HA
CR
Amil vs RodriguezMain Card · Featherweight
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KB
Lima vs BorjasPreliminary Card · Catchweight
MB
MM
Baghdasaryan vs MagomedovMain Card · Featherweight
BM
MM
Mesquita vs MullinsPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
AN
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Nascimento vs RaposoPreliminary Card · Flyweight
GB
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Bolaños vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Featherweight
KR
LS
Rosa vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
LS
LC
Shahbazyan vs ChokheliPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Collins vs TanziloviPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Nascimento
over Raposo · Flyweight
Our fair value$1.54
pays above fair
$1.62
Best prices · Nascimento
DraftKings · US
$1.62
Unibet (UK) · UK
$1.60
Pinnacle · EU
$1.62
Bet Right · AU
$1.58
Where to back Nascimento
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.54
US
DraftKings
$1.62
+5%
DraftKings
$1.62
+5%
UK
Unibet (UK)
$1.60
+4%
Unibet (UK)
$1.60
+4%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.62
+5%
Pinnacle
$1.62
+5%
AU
Bet Right
$1.58
+2%
Bet Right
$1.58
+2%
How it endsmethod calls · Nascimento · crowd line
Submission
11
$2.81
Decision
9
$3.43
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Nascimento 22-7
VS
10-3 Raposo
5'8"
height
5'5"
126 lb
weight
125 lb
70"
reach
65"
34
age
27
Orthodox
stance
Switch
5.1
strikes landed / min
2.3
37%
striking accuracy
33%
4.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.3
57%
striking defence
51%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
42%
takedown accuracy
60%
75%
takedown defence
50%
0.5
submissions / 15 min
0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market65% vs 62%
Consensus58 of 81 analysts
Sharpest angleNascimento by Submission — 11 of 20 method calls
Recommendation
Back Nascimento @ $1.62 · fair $1.54
+5% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
SS
Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Allan Nascimento
“I think I'm going to go Naso by unanimous decision on this one.”
Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Allan Nascimento
“I think I'm going to go Naso by unanimous decision on this one.”
SS
Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Mitch Raposo
“I'm going to take Allan Nascimento by split decision. I think this is my split decision fight.”
Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Mitch Raposo
“I'm going to take Allan Nascimento by split decision. I think this is my split decision fight.”
YA
YapMMA picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm taking Alan Nasimeno. I think he's going to absolutely destroy Mitch Raposo.”
YapMMA picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm taking Alan Nasimeno. I think he's going to absolutely destroy Mitch Raposo.”
MP
MPSO picks Mitch Raposo
“Even though he's a dog in this fight, I'm taking Mitch Raposo. I think he'll win the exchanges on the feet. And he'll be able to hold his own somewhat in the grappling. And just so win the rounds because of the more damage done even if he gets controlled for a bit of the round.”
MPSO picks Mitch Raposo
“Even though he's a dog in this fight, I'm taking Mitch Raposo. I think he'll win the exchanges on the feet. And he'll be able to hold his own somewhat in the grappling. And just so win the rounds because of the more damage done even if he gets controlled for a bit of the round.”
TM
Tap That MMA picks Allan Nascimento
“I don't dislike at all Allan Nascimento.”
Tap That MMA picks Allan Nascimento
“I don't dislike at all Allan Nascimento.”
HB
Half The Battle picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm going to pick Allan Nascimento to come out here and submit Mitch Raposo in Las Vegas, Nevada.”
Half The Battle picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm going to pick Allan Nascimento to come out here and submit Mitch Raposo in Las Vegas, Nevada.”
TA
TARGETMMA picks Allan Nascimento
“we are going Allan Nascimento on the money line for our strong favorites.”
$1.57
TARGETMMA picks Allan Nascimento
“we are going Allan Nascimento on the money line for our strong favorites.”
$1.57
TP
Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm going to take the better grappler. I'm going to take Allan Nascimento. I'm going to take Allan Nascimento to win a 2928 split decision.”
Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm going to take the better grappler. I'm going to take Allan Nascimento. I'm going to take Allan Nascimento to win a 2928 split decision.”
TP
The Franchise Player picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm going to go Alan Allan Nascimento by submission.”
The Franchise Player picks Allan Nascimento
“I'm going to go Alan Allan Nascimento by submission.”
WP
We Want Picks picks Mitch Raposo
“I do think he can win this fight.”
We Want Picks picks Mitch Raposo
“I do think he can win this fight.”
SQ
SqimpMMA picks Mitch Raposo
“I'm going to trust in Mitch Mitch Raposo to win this.”
SqimpMMA picks Mitch Raposo
“I'm going to trust in Mitch Mitch Raposo to win this.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Nascimento22-7
L
Raposo
Jun '26
W
Durden
Nov '25
W
Filho
May '25
W
Hernández
Jan '23
W
Hadley
May '22
Raposo10-3
W
Nascimento
Jun '26
W
Maksum
Oct '25
L
Mudaerji
Apr '25
L
Lima
Jun '24