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UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
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MK KH Kape vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight IC NS Cuțelaba vs StirlingMain Card · Light Heavyweight AF VO Fili vs OliveiraMain Card · Featherweight HA CR Amil vs RodriguezMain Card · Featherweight AL KB Lima vs BorjasPreliminary Card · Catchweight MB MM Baghdasaryan vs MagomedovMain Card · Featherweight BM MM Mesquita vs MullinsPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AN MR Nascimento vs RaposoPreliminary Card · Flyweight GB MJ Bolaños vs Jr.Preliminary Card · Featherweight KR LS Rosa vs SantosPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight LS LC Shahbazyan vs ChokheliPreliminary Card · Welterweight SC OT Collins vs TanziloviPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BEST PRICE We back Fili over Oliveira · Featherweight Our fair value$3.35 Ladbrokes AU pays above fair $3.50
Where to back Fili best price · region · EV vs fair $3.35
US BetMGM $3.40 +1%
UK LeoVegas $3.30 -2%
EU Betsson $3.50 +4%
AU Ladbrokes AU $3.50 +4%
Consensus88 picks · conf 81/99
Fili 29
59 Oliveira
MMMBMT pick Fili
How it endsmethod calls · Fili · crowd line
Decision 14 $3.35
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Fili 25-13 VS 23-4 Oliveira
5'11" height 5'9"
145 lb weight 145 lb
74" reach 70"
36 age 30
Orthodox stance Switch
3.9 strikes landed / min 5.9
37% striking accuracy 43%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 2.9
51% striking defence 53%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
43% takedown accuracy 60%
70% takedown defence 68%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market30% vs 29%
Consensus29 of 88 analysts
Sharpest angleFili by Decision — 14 of 14 method calls
Recommendation Back Fili @ $3.50 · fair $3.35 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Andre Fili VALUE “I'm gonna I'm gonna take Andre Fili here by split decision.”
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Vinicius Oliveira “give me Vinicius Oliveira by KO.”
YA YapMMA picks Andre Fili “Give me Andre Philly by knockout over Vinicius Oliveira Oliver.”
VO volksleftnut picks Vinicius Oliveira “I'm going round two knockout for Vinicius Oliveira.”
MP MPSO picks Andre Fili “I think he'll just pressure Andre Fili in the fight and just win the fight by throwing more and maybe with some control time as well.”
TM Tap That MMA picks Vinicius Oliveira “I definitely use Vinicius Oliveira in uh several DFS lineups this week too.”
HB Half The Battle picks Vinicius Oliveira “I'm gonna go Venicious Lock Dog Olivera to have a successful debut in the UFC at 145 lbs.”
MK MMA Kay picks Andre Fili VALUE “I want to go with Andre Fili, guys.” $3.30
TA TARGETMMA picks Andre Fili “Andre Fili TKO is plus 750, which I'm leaning towards. I'm leaning towards a TKO.” $8.50
TP Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Vinicius Oliveira “give me Venicious Vinicius Oliveira. Give me Lok Dog. Round two, TKO over Andre NOT_IN_ROSTER_23.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Vinicius Oliveira “give me Vinicius Oliveira by knockout.”
WP We Want Picks picks Vinicius Oliveira “NOT_IN_ROSTER_23 is going to be the pick.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Fili25-13
L Oliveira KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Delgado Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Costa Submission · R1 Feb '25
W Swanson Decision · R3 Jun '24
Oliveira23-4
W Fili KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Bautista Submission · R2 Feb '26
W Phillips Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Simón Decision · R3 Jun '24