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BEST PRICE We back Magomedov over Baghdasaryan · Featherweight Our fair value$1.24 PlayUp pays above fair $1.30
Where to back Magomedov best price · region · EV vs fair $1.24
US BetMGM $1.29 +4%
UK Betway $1.30 +5%
EU NordicBet $1.29 +4%
AU PlayUp $1.30 +5%
Consensus84 picks · conf 80/99
Baghdasaryan 8
76 Magomedov
GSSCJJ pick Baghdasaryan
How it endsmethod calls · Magomedov · crowd line
Submission 17 $1.24
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Baghdasaryan 8-3 VS 10-0 Magomedov
5'9" height 5'11"
145 lb weight 145 lb
70" reach 70"
34 age 26
Southpaw stance Orthodox
5.3 strikes landed / min —
61% striking accuracy —
3.1 strikes absorbed / min —
58% striking defence —
0.0 takedowns / 15 min —
0% takedown accuracy —
72% takedown defence —
0.0 submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market81% vs 77%
Consensus76 of 84 analysts
Sharpest angleMagomedov by Submission — 17 of 17 method calls
Recommendation Back Magomedov @ $1.30 · fair $1.24 +5% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Murtazali Magomedov “give me Murtazali Magomedov to win this fight in his UFC debut.”
YA YapMMA picks Murtazali Magomedov “I'm going to pick Murtazali Magomedov to finish Melik Melsik Baghdasaryan because I do feel like the finishing potential of Murtazali Magomedov outweighs the striking um potential of Melik Melsik Baghdasaryan.”
MP MPSO picks Murtazali Magomedov “I think Murtazali Magomedov will just be able to this is his debut he'll be able to out grapple Melsik Baghdasaryan in this fight.”
TM Tap That MMA picks Murtazali Magomedov “I'm played him plenty in DFS”
HB Half The Battle picks Murtazali Magomedov “I think Murtazali Magomedov is going to come out here and beat up Melsik Baghdasaryan and get his first UFC win.”
MK MMA Kay picks Murtazali Magomedov “I'm going to go with his debut guy, Murtazali Magomedov.”
TA TARGETMMA picks Murtazali Magomedov “You might as well take money line at that point.” $1.28
TP Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Murtazali Magomedov “I'm going to take Murtazali Magomedov. I'm going to take him to win by a first round rear naked choke submission.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Murtazali Magomedov “Melik the gun I think is going to get submitted here.”
SQ SqimpMMA picks Murtazali Magomedov “I'm going to go with Murtazali Magomedov round two TKO.”
BP Bloody Water Podcast picks Murtazali Magomedov “All right, bro, this is how I'm going to leave it right here. You look at Murtazali Magomedov, straight shots, sick grappling, untested in that rank. Um But everything that on paper or on the visuals from what I've seen, it just looks better than Melsik Baghdasaryan.”
FP Fight Night Picks picks Murtazali Magomedov “I think he beats Melsik Baghdasaryan, though.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Baghdasaryan8-3
L Magomedov Submission · R1 Jun '26
L Silva KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
W Lutz Decision · R3 Jul '23
L Culibao Submission · R2 Feb '23
W Souza Decision · R3 Nov '21
Magomedov10-0
W Baghdasaryan Submission · R1 Jun '26