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UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
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RF MT Fiziev vs TorresMain Card · Lightweight SM MP Magomedov vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight NS MC Sadykhov vs CamiloMain Card · Lightweight AA CJ Almabayev vs JohnsonMain Card · Flyweight IA BF Aliskerov vs FerreiraMain Card · Middleweight AM MO Magomedov vs OleksiejczukMain Card · Middleweight FH EN Hasanov vs NolanPreliminary Card · Welterweight AY JW Yakhyaev vs WalkerPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight NR AP Ruziboev vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight KO JR Ofli vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Featherweight DD TB Donchenko vs BerggrenPreliminary Card · Welterweight BA JM Almakhan vs MatsumotoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TA JN Abdullayev vs NascimentoPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Almabayev over Johnson · Flyweight Our fair value$1.37 Betfair Sportsbook pays above fair $1.40
Where to back Almabayev best price · region · EV vs fair $1.37
US FanDuel $1.37 -0%
UK Betfair Sportsbook $1.40 +2%
EU NordicBet $1.36 -1%
AU Unibet $1.36 -1%
Consensus147 picks · conf 99/99
Almabayev 108
39 Johnson
NNHSCT pick Almabayev
How it endsmethod calls · Almabayev · crowd line
Submission 6 $13.72
Decision 54 $1.52
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Almabayev 23-3 VS 19-8 Johnson
5'4" height 5'9"
125 lb weight 126 lb
65" reach 70"
32 age 35
Orthodox stance Switch
2.1 strikes landed / min 4.2
56% striking accuracy 47%
1.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.1
59% striking defence 54%
5.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
50% takedown accuracy 66%
50% takedown defence 55%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market73% vs 71%
Consensus108 of 147 analysts
Line move · 7d$1.40 → $1.40
Sharpest angleAlmabayev by Decision — 54 of 60 method calls
Recommendation Back Almabayev @ $1.40 · fair $1.37 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CM CornerTalk MMA picks Asu Almabayev “I'm gonna have to just go with my gut and say Asu Almabayev is going to pull it off”
CB Champ Bets picks Asu Almabayev “It's going to be Asu Almabayev.”
LS Lucid Sports picks Asu Almabayev “I'm I'mma lean uh Asu Almabayev in this one, man. I think he I think he get the job done.”
TA The True Analyst picks Asu Almabayev “I say Asu Almabayev by decision, guys.”
BM Breakdown MMA picks Asu Almabayev “It's possibly a split decision, but I do n't see Johnson knocking him out or him knocking Johnson out, no, uh yes, a decision, a decision in favor of Alma Valet.”
JH Jamahal Hill picks Charles Johnson “You pulling Charles Johnson, right?”
NI Nick23mma picks Asu Almabayev “So I'm going to go Asu Almabayev just kind of grappling him winning at 2928 decision.”
CM Clutch Attitude MMA picks Asu Almabayev “I'm just going to go with Asu Almabayev to get this done. Guys, he's been he's been doing good, but he's just not that consistent as of late.”
YO YoungPastey picks Asu Almabayev “I have a little more faith in Asu Almabayev's cardio at this point given that he came out and got that third round submission after getting dominated the first two rounds. Yeah, I think we see a a complete dominant grappling display display for from Asu Almabayev for three rounds and the flyweight looks good over Charles Johnson.”
HN Hyde Park Ninjas picks Charles Johnson “I'm going Charles Johnson. Final call. I'm switching it. I'm going Charles Johnson.”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Charles Johnson VALUE “I'm on the side of Charles Johnson.”
JM Jay Jay MMA picks Asu Almabayev “I think that Asu Almabayev is going to get it done probably by a decision”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W Johnson Submission · R3 Jun '26
W Perez Submission · R3 Nov '25
W Ochoa Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Kape KO/TKO · R3 Mar '25
W Nicolau Decision · R3 Oct '24
Johnson19-8
L Almabayev Submission · R3 Jun '26
W Silva Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Perez KO/TKO · R1 Jan '26
W Kavanagh KO/TKO · R2 Aug '25
L Temirov Decision · R3 Mar '25