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UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
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RF MT Fiziev vs TorresMain Card · Lightweight SM MP Magomedov vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight NS MC Sadykhov vs CamiloMain Card · Lightweight AA CJ Almabayev vs JohnsonMain Card · Flyweight IA BF Aliskerov vs FerreiraMain Card · Middleweight AM MO Magomedov vs OleksiejczukMain Card · Middleweight FH EN Hasanov vs NolanPreliminary Card · Welterweight AY JW Yakhyaev vs WalkerPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight NR AP Ruziboev vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight KO JR Ofli vs ReyesPreliminary Card · Featherweight DD TB Donchenko vs BerggrenPreliminary Card · Welterweight BA JM Almakhan vs MatsumotoPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TA JN Abdullayev vs NascimentoPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Nascimento over Abdullayev · Welterweight Our fair value$1.71 Betway pays above fair $1.83
Where to back Nascimento best price · region · EV vs fair $1.71
US BetMGM $1.80 +5%
UK Betway $1.83 +7%
EU Coolbet $1.72 +0%
AU PointsBet (AU) $1.70 -1%
Consensus111 picks · conf 91/99
Abdullayev 40
71 Nascimento
NPNTMT pick Abdullayev
How it endsmethod calls · Nascimento · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $7.71
Submission 1 $30.85
Decision 13 $2.37
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Abdullayev 19-3 VS 13-0 Nascimento
5'8" height 5'8"
170 lb weight 155 lb
— reach —
29 age —
-- stance --
— strikes landed / min —
— striking accuracy —
— strikes absorbed / min —
— striking defence —
— takedowns / 15 min —
— takedown accuracy —
— takedown defence —
— submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market58% vs 55%
Consensus71 of 111 analysts
Line move · 7d$2.00 → $1.83
Sharpest angleNascimento by Decision — 13 of 18 method calls
Recommendation Back Nascimento @ $1.83 · fair $1.71 +7% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CB Champ Bets picks Jefferson Nascimento “I'm going to go Nasimento cuz I think if this fight extends, it's kind of leans towards him and he's going to think he's going to land some good body shots and can take um Tahir Abdullayev down.”
TA The True Analyst picks Tahir Abdullayev “I just favor, you know, Tahir Abdullayev for the win here. I'mma go Tahir Abdullayev, man.”
NI Nick23mma picks Tahir Abdullayev “I'm going to go Tahir Abdullayev of winning either a decision victory here or a second round finish by ground and pound.”
CM Clutch Attitude MMA picks Jefferson Nascimento “I'm going to take Jefferson Nascimento because he's been fighting the best opposition at arguably a better promotion as well in LFA. So, I'm going to go with Jefferson Nascimento taking this against uh the hometown kid in Tahir Abdullayev.”
MM mmanow27 picks Jefferson Nascimento “I really really like this guy against Jefferson Nascimento I really like him I think he does a lot really really good things in this matchup”
MM mmanow27 picks Tahir Abdullayev “I really really like this guy against Jefferson Nascimento I really like him I think he does a lot really really good things in this matchup”
HN Hyde Park Ninjas picks Tahir Abdullayev “I think Tahir Abdullayev is fighting at home because that's in this is in his country.”
MA MMA Attic picks Tahir Abdullayev “we'll be starting off the night with about between Tair Tahir Abdullayev versus Jefferson Nascimento, but I'm unable to find an age for Jefferson, so there's nothing I can do about this one.”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Jefferson Nascimento “I got to pick Jefferson Nascimento though.”
JM Jay Jay MMA picks Jefferson Nascimento “I think that Jefferson Nascimento is gonna pull this one off”
TM The MMA Mystic picks Tahir Abdullayev “I'm going to lean Tahir Abdullayev.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Jefferson Nascimento “I will pick Jefferson Jefferson Nascimento to edge out the win”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Abdullayev19-3
W Nascimento KO/TKO · R3 Jun '26
Nascimento13-0
L Abdullayev KO/TKO · R3 Jun '26