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UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates
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IG CP Garry vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight ZM AS Mingyang vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight DO GC Onama vs ChikadzeMain Card · Catchweight AM MP Magomedov vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight RB ND Brown vs DalbyMain Card · Welterweight IA AM Aliskerov vs MunizMain Card · Middleweight MS JF Schnell vs FlickPreliminary Card · Flyweight EE GY Elder vs YoungPreliminary Card · Lightweight CG JC Gutiérrez vs CastañedaPreliminary Card · Featherweight DB AH Blackshear vs HeiliPreliminary Card · Bantamweight MW CS Wellmaker vs SaaimanPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JA PV Amorim vs VianaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight TC RR Cuamba vs RomeroPreliminary Card · Featherweight JE CC Edwards vs ChandlerPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Mingyang over Smith · Light Heavyweight Our fair value$1.27 Betway pays above fair $1.29
Where to back Mingyang best price · region · EV vs fair $1.27
US DraftKings $1.27 +0%
UK Betway $1.29 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.28 +1%
AU PlayUp $1.27 +0%
Consensus39 picks · conf 61/99
Mingyang 32
7 Smith
9SBPTA pick Mingyang
How it endsmethod calls · Mingyang · crowd line
KO/TKO 72 $1.28
None 1 $92.38
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Mingyang 19-7 VS 38-20 Smith
6'2" height 6'4"
205 lb weight 206 lb
76" reach 76"
27 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.1 strikes landed / min 3.2
37% striking accuracy 49%
3.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.6
49% striking defence 46%
0.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
49% takedown accuracy 26%
65% takedown defence 50%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.6
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market79% vs 78%
Consensus32 of 39 analysts
Sharpest angleMingyang by KO/TKO — 72 of 73 method calls
Recommendation Back Mingyang @ $1.29 · fair $1.27 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Zhang Mingyang VALUE
FL Fight Lab picks Zhang Mingyang VALUE “This eventually leads to a knockout.”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Zhang Mingyang VALUE “I'm taking Yang in this one”
DB Denver Sports Betting picks Zhang Mingyang “I got Zhang Mingyang, um, on this one”
DB Denver Sports Betting picks Anthony Smith VALUE “I'm going to put my money on Anthony Anthony Smith”
BB Beat The Line Broadcast picks Anthony Smith “Not directly quoted.”
BB Beat The Line Broadcast picks Zhang Mingyang “Not directly quoted.”
WP We Want Picks picks Zhang Mingyang VALUE “I do think Jen gets it done.”
LM Luis MMA picks Zhang Mingyang “y creo que viene imparable y va a arrogar a Anthony Smith. Sinceramente, cabe la posibilidad de que Anthony Smith... pero como se plantea intercambiar manos con Zhang Mingyang, estoy seguro que Antonio Am va a ser el que se vaya a dormir”
FI Fight_Numerology picks Zhang Mingyang “I'm going to pick Jeyang over Anthony Smith.”
BE BetSam picks Zhang Mingyang VALUE “I love him here. I think he's safe to parlay.”
PN Picks Nation picks Zhang Mingyang VALUE “I think he's going to blow through Anthony Smith.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Mingyang19-7
L Menifield KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Walker KO/TKO · R2 Aug '25
W Smith KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
W Diaz KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24
W Ribeiro KO/TKO · R1 Feb '24
Smith38-20
L Mingyang KO/TKO · R1 Apr '25
L Reyes KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
L Dolidze Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Petrino Submission · R1 May '24
L Jr. KO/TKO · R3 Dec '23