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UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates
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BEST PRICE We back Elder over Young · Lightweight Our fair value$1.39 Paddy Power pays above fair $1.50
Where to back Elder best price · region · EV vs fair $1.39
US BetRivers $1.48 +7%
UK Paddy Power $1.50 +8%
EU Unibet (EU) $1.48 +7%
AU Unibet $1.48 +7%
Consensus48 picks · conf 68/99
Elder 39
9 Young
TSTIMM pick Elder
How it endsmethod calls · Elder · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $5.32
Submission 4 $7.98
Decision 13 $2.46
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Elder 10-2 VS 10-3 Young
5'10" height 5'9"
156 lb weight 155 lb
72" reach 70"
29 age 25
Switch stance Orthodox
2.0 strikes landed / min 3.4
60% striking accuracy 35%
3.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.2
71% striking defence 46%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.5
44% takedown accuracy 71%
90% takedown defence 79%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market72% vs 67%
Consensus39 of 48 analysts
Sharpest angleElder by Decision — 13 of 23 method calls
Recommendation Back Elder @ $1.50 · fair $1.39 +8% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Evan Elder VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Evan Elder “I got Evan Elder.”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Evan Elder VALUE “Give me Evan Elder. ... Get the win. Decision knockout submission.”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Evan Elder VALUE “I'm taking Evan Elder in this one”
JW Johnny Walker picks Evan Elder “Eu acho que vai dar o veterano da casa. Evan Elder, Evan Elder, Vitó, Evan Elder Elder”
BB Beat The Line Broadcast picks Evan Elder “I think that Elders solid and a and a really well-trained guy.”
BB Beat The Line Broadcast picks Gauge Young VALUE “I'm going to pick him to to get this this uh this upset in his hometown.”
WP We Want Picks picks Evan Elder VALUE “Evan Elder is the pick though.”
BL BlazeMMA picks Evan Elder “I think Evanelder is going to be able to pull off the victory here.”
GM GLO MMA picks Evan Elder “pick Evan Elder to win this”
OH OhioPlayer picks Gauge Young VALUE “Gauge Young impressed me a lot.”
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Evan Elder “I believe that will eventually lead to Evan Elder Elder winning this fight on the scorecards.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Elder10-2
W Young Decision · R3 Apr '25
W Flowers Submission · R2 Jul '24
W Valdez Decision · R3 Jul '23
L Sadykhov KO/TKO · R3 Feb '23
L Parsons Decision · R3 Apr '22
Young10-3
W Moisés Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Hayisaer Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Elder Decision · R3 Apr '25