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UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates
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IG CP Garry vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight ZM AS Mingyang vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight DO GC Onama vs ChikadzeMain Card · Catchweight AM MP Magomedov vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight RB ND Brown vs DalbyMain Card · Welterweight IA AM Aliskerov vs MunizMain Card · Middleweight MS JF Schnell vs FlickPreliminary Card · Flyweight EE GY Elder vs YoungPreliminary Card · Lightweight CG JC Gutiérrez vs CastañedaPreliminary Card · Featherweight DB AH Blackshear vs HeiliPreliminary Card · Bantamweight MW CS Wellmaker vs SaaimanPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JA PV Amorim vs VianaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight TC RR Cuamba vs RomeroPreliminary Card · Featherweight JE CC Edwards vs ChandlerPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Schnell over Flick · Flyweight Our fair value$1.60 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.66
Where to back Schnell best price · region · EV vs fair $1.60
US Caesars $1.65 +3%
UK Paddy Power $1.62 +1%
EU Pinnacle $1.66 +4%
AU Ladbrokes AU $1.62 +1%
Consensus47 picks · conf 67/99
Schnell 32
15 Flick
TLOJIL pick Schnell
How it endsmethod calls · Schnell · crowd line
KO/TKO 10 $3.36
Submission 1 $33.58
Decision 9 $3.73
None 1 $33.58
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Schnell 17-10 VS 17-8 Flick
5'8" height 5'7"
126 lb weight 126 lb
70" reach 68"
36 age 35
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 1.9
39% striking accuracy 50%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 5.4
55% striking defence 43%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 1.6
40% takedown accuracy 21%
50% takedown defence 0%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 4.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market63% vs 60%
Consensus32 of 47 analysts
Sharpest angleSchnell by KO/TKO — 10 of 21 method calls
Recommendation Back Schnell @ $1.66 · fair $1.60 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Matt Schnell VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Matt Schnell “I'm going with Matt Schnell”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Matt Schnell “I'm going with the favorite. ... Give me Matt Schnell.”
ES etoft21 sports picks Jimmy Flick VALUE “I'm taking Jimmy Flick.”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Matt Schnell “I'm actually taking Matt Schnell”
XL xLimOnC picks Jimmy Flick “yo creo que se la va a llevar Jimmy Flick”
FE FenceHugMMA picks Jimmy Flick VALUE “I'm probably going to roll with Jimmy Jimmy Flick as the underdog in this one.” $1.56
BB Beat The Line Broadcast picks Matt Schnell VALUE “I think this is a clear Matt Snell spot.” $1.59
WP We Want Picks picks Matt Schnell “Matchell should win this fight.”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Matt Schnell “So, I'm going to go with Matt Schnell to win this fight.”
OH OhioPlayer picks Matt Schnell “I'm just going to go with Jimmy Flick for the hell of it.”
PR Premium-Picks picks Matt Schnell VALUE “I really like Matt Schnell atus 188.” $2.88
Recent form last five, most recent first
Schnell17-10
L Costa KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
L Morales Submission · R1 Nov '25
W Flick Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Durden Submission · R2 Sep '24
L Erceg KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
Flick17-8
L Schnell Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Maness Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Gordon Submission · R2 Jan '24
L Costa KO/TKO · R2 Jun '23
L Johnson KO/TKO · R1 Jan '23