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UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates
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IG CP Garry vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight ZM AS Mingyang vs SmithMain Card · Light Heavyweight DO GC Onama vs ChikadzeMain Card · Catchweight AM MP Magomedov vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight RB ND Brown vs DalbyMain Card · Welterweight IA AM Aliskerov vs MunizMain Card · Middleweight MS JF Schnell vs FlickPreliminary Card · Flyweight EE GY Elder vs YoungPreliminary Card · Lightweight CG JC Gutiérrez vs CastañedaPreliminary Card · Featherweight DB AH Blackshear vs HeiliPreliminary Card · Bantamweight MW CS Wellmaker vs SaaimanPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JA PV Amorim vs VianaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight TC RR Cuamba vs RomeroPreliminary Card · Featherweight JE CC Edwards vs ChandlerPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
BEST PRICE We back Brown over Dalby · Welterweight Our fair value$1.33 Betsson pays above fair $1.35
Where to back Brown best price · region · EV vs fair $1.33
US DraftKings $1.34 +1%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.33 +0%
EU Betsson $1.35 +2%
AU PlayUp $1.33 +0%
Consensus74 picks · conf 77/99
Brown 60
14 Dalby
TbC9SS pick Brown
How it endsmethod calls · Brown · crowd line
KO/TKO 17 $3.43
Decision 27 $2.16
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Brown 20-7 VS 23-5-1 Dalby
6'3" height 5'11"
171 lb weight 171 lb
78" reach 74"
35 age 41
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 4.1
47% striking accuracy 43%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.5
54% striking defence 52%
0.7 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
39% takedown accuracy 27%
70% takedown defence 58%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market75% vs 74%
Consensus60 of 74 analysts
Sharpest angleBrown by Decision — 27 of 44 method calls
Recommendation Back Brown @ $1.35 · fair $1.33 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Randy Brown “I'll take Randy Brown.”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Randy Brown VALUE “I like Randy Brown as the pick.”
T™ TheWagerZone ™ picks Randy Brown VALUE “I'm taking Randy Brown in this one”
XL xLimOnC picks Randy Brown “yo creo que esta pelea se la ha llevado Randy Brown”
KR KROSEOVERkid picks Nicolas Dalby “We're going to take Nicholas Darby in this one.”
FH FonzieMMA Hindi picks Randy Brown “अगर मुझे लीन करना हो तो मैं Randy Brown की तरफ लीन करूंगा इन दिस फाइट।”
BB Beat The Line Broadcast picks Nicolas Dalby “I think Father Tom's undefeated and I think Randy Brown's the striker to probably find a knockout.”
WP We Want Picks picks Randy Brown “Randy should win.”
WT WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Nicolas Dalby VALUE “We're taking Nicholas at plus 195.” $2.95
LM Luis MMA picks Randy Brown “yo en esta pelea voy con el peleador jamicano Randy Brown”
FI Fight_Numerology picks Randy Brown “I'll go with Randy Brown in this one.”
MM MMA HINDI MANOJ picks Randy Brown “Randy Brown is going to win this fight. He's a much more complete fighter. Um, and got got much more weapons to attack. So, I think he's winning this fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Brown20-7
L Holland Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Bonfim KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Dalby KO/TKO · R2 Apr '25
L Battle Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Santos Decision · R3 Jun '24
Dalby23-5-1
W Izagakhmaev Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Brown KO/TKO · R2 Apr '25
L Fakhretdinov Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Bonfim KO/TKO · R2 Nov '23
W Salikhov Decision · R3 Jun '23