Choose a fight to analyse
MD
AR
Dern vs RibasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
SP
CH
Ponzinibbio vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight
CA
AA
Almeida vs AlhassanMain Card · Middleweight
RK
CC
Kopylov vs CurtisMain Card · Middleweight
CR
AB
Rodriguez vs BashiMain Card · Featherweight
PS
UM
Soriano vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight
FB
JJ
Bunes vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
MT
IP
Tulio vs PotieriaPreliminary Card · Catchweight
TM
TO
Moisés vs OgdenPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JS
PP
Smith vs ParsonsPreliminary Card · Welterweight
EK
NC
Kareckaitė vs CaliariPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BL
MG
Lopes vs GadzhiyasulovPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
FK
VD
Kline vs DudakovaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
NA
JS
Aliev vs SoleckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight
AR
Dern vs RibasMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
SP
CH
Ponzinibbio vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight
CA
AA
Almeida vs AlhassanMain Card · Middleweight
RK
CC
Kopylov vs CurtisMain Card · Middleweight
CR
AB
Rodriguez vs BashiMain Card · Featherweight
PS
UM
Soriano vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight
FB
JJ
Bunes vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
MT
IP
Tulio vs PotieriaPreliminary Card · Catchweight
TM
TO
Moisés vs OgdenPreliminary Card · Lightweight
JS
PP
Smith vs ParsonsPreliminary Card · Welterweight
EK
NC
Kareckaitė vs CaliariPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BL
MG
Lopes vs GadzhiyasulovPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
FK
VD
Kline vs DudakovaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
NA
JS
Aliev vs SoleckiPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Ogden
over Moisés · Lightweight
Our fair value$2.44
pays above fair
$2.55
Best prices · Ogden
Caesars · US
$2.50
Unibet (UK) · UK
$2.43
NordicBet · EU
$2.55
TAB · AU
$2.50
Where to back Ogden
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.44
US
Caesars
$2.50
+2%
Caesars
$2.50
+2%
UK
Unibet (UK)
$2.43
-0%
Unibet (UK)
$2.43
-0%
EU
NordicBet
$2.55
+4%
NordicBet
$2.55
+4%
AU
TAB
$2.50
+2%
TAB
$2.50
+2%
How it endsmethod calls · Ogden · crowd line
Submission
3
$8.13
Decision
5
$4.88
None
2
$12.20
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Moisés 19-9
VS
18-7 Ogden
5'9"
height
5'11"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
72"
31
age
36
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.4
strikes landed / min
3.1
40%
striking accuracy
48%
4.1
strikes absorbed / min
3.5
54%
striking defence
57%
1.5
takedowns / 15 min
2.0
35%
takedown accuracy
30%
55%
takedown defence
100%
1.3
submissions / 15 min
0.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market41% vs 39%
Consensus32 of 70 analysts
Sharpest angleOgden by Decision — 5 of 10 method calls
Recommendation
Back Ogden @ $2.55 · fair $2.44
+4% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MA
MMA Attic picks Thiago Moisés
“next at lightweight we have Thiago Moisés versus Trey Ogden and we are going with the favorite Thiago Moisés at minus 175”
$1.57
MMA Attic picks Thiago Moisés
“next at lightweight we have Thiago Moisés versus Trey Ogden and we are going with the favorite Thiago Moisés at minus 175”
$1.57
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Trey Ogden
“I'm going with Trey Trey Ogden by submission”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Trey Ogden
“I'm going with Trey Trey Ogden by submission”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Thiago Moisés
“my subscribers and I went with um Thiago Moises Thiago Moisés is the favorite at minus 195”
$1.51
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Thiago Moisés
“my subscribers and I went with um Thiago Moises Thiago Moisés is the favorite at minus 195”
$1.51
AM
Ain't No Way MMA picks Thiago Moisés
“Thiago Moisés has been old for a while but he performs really well as an old man ... I think Thiago Moisés poses a threat for just about anyone”
Ain't No Way MMA picks Thiago Moisés
“Thiago Moisés has been old for a while but he performs really well as an old man ... I think Thiago Moisés poses a threat for just about anyone”
WS
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“we have a play on Trey Ogden o I like that okay getting in his face a little bit Trey Ogden looks like he's got a little bit of a size Advantage I like that a lot I like that a lot nice size Advantage for Trey Ogden he's taller he looks a little bigger I think that's going to come that's going to be very good we have Trey Ogden at plus 165 two units as well on that”
We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“we have a play on Trey Ogden o I like that okay getting in his face a little bit Trey Ogden looks like he's got a little bit of a size Advantage I like that a lot I like that a lot nice size Advantage for Trey Ogden he's taller he looks a little bigger I think that's going to come that's going to be very good we have Trey Ogden at plus 165 two units as well on that”
MM
Mayor MMA picks Thiago Moisés
“I'm going to take Moes to win”
Mayor MMA picks Thiago Moisés
“I'm going to take Moes to win”
LE
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Thiago Moisés VALUE
“siento que también este brasileño va a salir con la victoria”
$1.09
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Thiago Moisés VALUE
“siento que también este brasileño va a salir con la victoria”
$1.09
KU
Kunath picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“Tri aon's one of my favorite value plays of the week I think he shows up and beats Thiago Moisés everywhere”
Kunath picks Trey Ogden VALUE
“Tri aon's one of my favorite value plays of the week I think he shows up and beats Thiago Moisés everywhere”
MP
MMA Pros Pick picks Thiago Moisés
“I still think that Moes gets it done”
MMA Pros Pick picks Thiago Moisés
“I still think that Moes gets it done”
GM
GLO MMA picks Trey Ogden
“I'm picking Trey Ogden and I normally wouldn't do something like this cuz he is the older Fighter um but he's coming off some wins”
GLO MMA picks Trey Ogden
“I'm picking Trey Ogden and I normally wouldn't do something like this cuz he is the older Fighter um but he's coming off some wins”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Moisés19-9
L
Young
Apr '26
L
Gordon
May '25
W
Ogden
Jan '25
L
Klein
Jun '24
W
Ramirez
Mar '24
Ogden18-7
L
Moisés
Jan '25
W
Radzhabov
Jul '24
W
Holobaugh
Mar '24
L
Bahamondes
Apr '23
W
Zellhuber
Sep '22