MMA Prophecy
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UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
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IT MH Topuria vs HollowayMain Card · Featherweight KC RW Chimaev vs WhittakerMain Card · Middleweight MA AR Ankalaev vs RakićMain Card · Light Heavyweight LM DI Murphy vs IgeMain Card · Featherweight SM AP Magomedov vs PetrosyanMain Card · Middleweight IA RC Aslan vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight GN RA Neal vs AnjosPreliminary Card · Welterweight MR MO Rębecki vs OrolbaiPreliminary Card · Catchweight AM BF Magomedov vs FerreiraPreliminary Card · Middleweight KN CB Nzechukwu vs BarnettPreliminary Card · Heavyweight FB VH Basharat vs HugoPreliminary Card · Featherweight IN BS Naurdiev vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Middleweight RF CL Fakhretdinov vs LealPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Holloway over Topuria · Featherweight Our fair value$2.79 Fliff pays above fair $3.45
Where to back Holloway best price · region · EV vs fair $2.79
US Fliff $3.45 +24%
UK Virgin Bet $3.15 +13%
EU Betsson $3.30 +18%
AU PlayUp $3.40 +22%
Consensus270 picks · conf 99/99
Topuria 137
133 Holloway
TTGMFS pick Topuria
How it endsmethod calls · Holloway · crowd line
KO/TKO 32 $6.97
Decision 46 $4.85
None 2 $111.53
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Topuria 17-0 VS 0-0 Holloway
5'7" height 5'11"
155 lb weight 155 lb
69" reach 69"
29 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 6.8
54% striking accuracy 46%
2.3 strikes absorbed / min 4.4
61% striking defence 59%
2.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
57% takedown accuracy 39%
84% takedown defence 79%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 0.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market36% vs 29%
Consensus133 of 270 analysts
Sharpest angleHolloway by Decision — 46 of 80 method calls
Recommendation Back Holloway @ $3.45 · fair $2.79 +24% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Max Holloway VALUE $3.20
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Ilia Topuria “my subscribers and I went with Reard Fov” $1.38
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Max Holloway “reluctant but I'm going to take Max Holloway Max Holloway to get this Victory I I call me sure Max Holloway that's my bet but my pick on tapology will be Max Holloway”
BS B ALL N Sports picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “I am going to side obviously with NOT_IN_ROSTER_20 he's my guy ... I'm GNA go with ilot NOT_IN_ROSTER_20”
FL Fight Lab picks Max Holloway VALUE “I think Max Holloway gets it done”
FM FunkyBunch MMA picks Ilia Topuria “give me ilot Ilia Topuria by so I think that Ilia Topuria will be able to pick his shots land the more powerful blows” $1.42
ST StunnaSwitch picks Ilia Topuria VALUE “for this fight I'm gon go R not money line plus I'll sprinkle L on that Rinat Fakhretdinov submission”
FD Fight Dinasty picks Max Holloway “Max Holloway is a legend and he can definitely win this fight”
FC Fight CAT picks Max Holloway VALUE “I'm going to go with the max 205 take that” $3.05
PM Pitter Pat MMA picks Ilia Topuria “I'm leaning slightly towards Ilia Topuria”
CP Combat Chatters Podcast picks Ilia Topuria “I think I'm going to go Ilia Topuria”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Max Holloway VALUE “ended up taking a one unit shot on Max Holloway at plus 240” $3.40
Recent form last five, most recent first
Topuria17-0
L Gaethje KO/TKO · R4 Jun '26
W Oliveira KO/TKO · R1 Jun '25
W Holloway KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
W Volkanovski KO/TKO · R2 Feb '24
W Emmett Decision · R5 Jun '23
Holloway0-0
L Oliveira Decision · R5 Mar '26
W Poirier Decision · R5 Jul '25
L Topuria KO/TKO · R3 Oct '24
W Gaethje KO/TKO · R5 Apr '24
W Chan-sung KO/TKO · R3 Aug '23