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Bautista vs BlackshearMain Card · Bantamweight
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Vera vs MunhozMain Card · Bantamweight
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Tavares vs WeidmanPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Tavares v Weidman
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Tavares 21-12
VS
16-7 Weidman
6'1"
height
6'2"
186 lb
weight
194 lb
74"
reach
78"
38
age
42
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
3.0
strikes landed / min
3.2
64%
striking accuracy
45%
2.6
strikes absorbed / min
3.2
54%
striking defence
51%
2.4
takedowns / 15 min
3.4
35%
takedown accuracy
42%
55%
takedown defence
65%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MM
Mmajessic picks Brad Tavares
“my money is on Brad Tavares Brad Tavares I give the fight to Brad Brad Tavares”
Mmajessic picks Brad Tavares
“my money is on Brad Tavares Brad Tavares I give the fight to Brad Brad Tavares”
KU
Kunath picks Brad Tavares
“if you do play Brad Tavares and you're getting different and he comes up with a finish then you are in a great spot”
Kunath picks Brad Tavares
“if you do play Brad Tavares and you're getting different and he comes up with a finish then you are in a great spot”
WP
We Want Picks picks Chris Weidman VALUE
“I'm gonna shoot my shot in DraftKings Fantasy on Chris Weidman”
We Want Picks picks Chris Weidman VALUE
“I'm gonna shoot my shot in DraftKings Fantasy on Chris Weidman”
DS
Dynes Sports picks Brad Tavares
“I consider Brad Tavares the rightful favorite ... I think he gets it done”
Dynes Sports picks Brad Tavares
“I consider Brad Tavares the rightful favorite ... I think he gets it done”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Brad Tavares
“we got Chris Chris Weidman versus Brad Tavares um Chris Weidman coming back um after a long layoff after that terrible leg injury um he's fighting Brad Tavares who's had a bit of a rough patch recently but I do suspect Brad Tavares will win”
Leftlane MMA picks Brad Tavares
“we got Chris Chris Weidman versus Brad Tavares um Chris Weidman coming back um after a long layoff after that terrible leg injury um he's fighting Brad Tavares who's had a bit of a rough patch recently but I do suspect Brad Tavares will win”
HY
Hypecheck picks Brad Tavares
“while Brad Tavares should win this fight I like while Brad Tavares should win this fight I like while Brad Tavares should win this fight I like Chris Weidman a lot at this price tag for a Sprinkle”
Hypecheck picks Brad Tavares
“while Brad Tavares should win this fight I like while Brad Tavares should win this fight I like while Brad Tavares should win this fight I like Chris Weidman a lot at this price tag for a Sprinkle”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Chris Weidman VALUE
“None”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Chris Weidman VALUE
“None”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Brad Tavares VALUE
“None”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Brad Tavares VALUE
“None”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Chris Weidman VALUE
“Chris Weidman in his day against Brad Tavares you'll be all over that price now is Chris Weidman didn't look like Chris Wyman even before he broke the leg so it's hard to expect him to look like it again having said that though is Brad Tavares the same fighter he was a few years ago I would say probably not either um look Chris Weidman came back and he competed in that Jujitsu match will that help him I I don't think it'll hurt um I'm very interested to see how Weidman looks here as what a small best on my minute plus 225 be a good one”
$3.25
Sherdog.com picks Chris Weidman VALUE
“Chris Weidman in his day against Brad Tavares you'll be all over that price now is Chris Weidman didn't look like Chris Wyman even before he broke the leg so it's hard to expect him to look like it again having said that though is Brad Tavares the same fighter he was a few years ago I would say probably not either um look Chris Weidman came back and he competed in that Jujitsu match will that help him I I don't think it'll hurt um I'm very interested to see how Weidman looks here as what a small best on my minute plus 225 be a good one”
$3.25
SH
Sherdog.com picks Brad Tavares
“Brad Tavares the same fighter he was a few years ago I would say probably not either”
Sherdog.com picks Brad Tavares
“Brad Tavares the same fighter he was a few years ago I would say probably not either”
MW
Making the Walk picks Brad Tavares VALUE
“I applaud Chris for even showing up ... making weight and making that walk ... I think that Brettavarez is no slouch but ... Chris for even showing up”
Making the Walk picks Brad Tavares VALUE
“I applaud Chris for even showing up ... making weight and making that walk ... I think that Brettavarez is no slouch but ... Chris for even showing up”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Tavares21-12
L
Anders
Mar '26
L
Bryczek
Sep '25
W
Meerschaert
Apr '25
L
Jun-yong
Oct '24
L
Rodrigues
Feb '24
Weidman16-7
L
Anders
Dec '24
W
Silva
Mar '24
L
Tavares
Aug '23
L
Hall
Apr '21
W
Akhmedov
Aug '20