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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Diego Ferreira v Johnson Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus13 picks · conf 34/99
Diego Ferreira 4
9 Johnson
HPWS pick Diego Ferreira
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Diego Ferreira 23-8 VS 0-0 Johnson
5'5" height 5'10"
215 lb weight 156 lb
64" reach 74"
— age 40
Switch stance Southpaw
3.7 strikes landed / min 4.3
58% striking accuracy 39%
2.4 strikes absorbed / min 3.8
64% striking defence 57%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
60% takedown accuracy 41%
80% takedown defence 81%
1.6 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Michael Johnson VALUE “I personally think Michael Johnson wins”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Michael Johnson VALUE “I'm picking Michael Johnson to lay him out man” $2.40
SH Sherdog.com picks Michael Johnson VALUE “look at Michael Dunton as well if he fights the the best of his ability that plus 133 price looks pretty good” $2.33
CL Clenbat picks Michael Johnson VALUE “I really like Michael Johnson's chances for the odd”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Michael Johnson “I'm gonna go Michael Johnson here”
HB Half The Battle picks Carlos Diego Ferreira “I'm gonna pick Carlos Carlos Diego Ferreira Ferreira Carlos Diego Ferreira because I think in both of their primes Carlos Diego Ferreira wins this fight” $1.67
WP We Want Picks picks Michael Johnson “we have Michael Johnson Johnson taking on Carlos Carlos Diego Ferreira Ferreira”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Michael Johnson “give me the underdog give me Michael Johnson to win this match up”
AM Artem MMA picks Michael Johnson VALUE “I think Michael Johnson does win this fight”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE “we smash a a big time five unit two team parlay uh I had to pick up that easy money there and Carl Williams and Carlos Diego Ferreira” $1.53
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Michael Johnson VALUE “I'm going Michael Johnson dog of the week”
SY Super Sodiq Yusuff picks Carlos Diego Ferreira VALUE “Carlos Diego Ferreira versus Michael Johnson”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Diego Ferreira23-8
L Hernandez KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
L Dawson Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Rębecki KO/TKO · R3 May '24
W Johnson KO/TKO · R2 May '23
L Gamrot KO/TKO · R2 Dec '21
Johnson0-0
L Dober KO/TKO · R2 Mar '26
W Zellhuber Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Azaitar KO/TKO · R2 Dec '24
W Flowers Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Ferreira KO/TKO · R2 May '23