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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Muhammad v Burns Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus25 picks · conf 50/99
Muhammad 16
9 Burns
HMM1GU pick Muhammad
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Muhammad 24-5 VS 22-9 Burns
5'11" height 5'10"
171 lb weight 170 lb
72" reach 71"
37 age 39
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 3.2
47% striking accuracy 48%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
59% striking defence 52%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.1
46% takedown accuracy 37%
77% takedown defence 53%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Gilbert Burns “Gilbert Burns 8200 take as dominant a fighter as Gilbert Burns”
MD MMA DOST picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “Belal Muhammad mohammed will win this fight most probably he can pull out a plate decision victory”
OM One On One | MMA picks Gilbert Burns VALUE “I'm picking Gilbert Burns okay I'm picking Gilbert Burns for sure”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Gilbert Burns “I'm gonna go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_26 by decision just because his past fights his past wins are by decision... most part of my decision that's what we got for that one there's no value in the money line but yeah we could probably sneak it off all three rounds though that's what we got for that fight”
KU Kunath picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “give me me below Muhammad remember the name and he's one of the stronger value plays”
M👊 MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Gilbert Burns “the simulations have Gilbert Burns winning three out of five simulations with one decision victory and two submission victories in the first and second rounds”
M👊 MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Belal Muhammad “Belal Muhammad had one decision victory and one submission victory in the fourth round”
M👊 MMA.I. - UFC Predictions & Simulations 👊🎮 picks Gilbert Burns VALUE “the simulations have Gilbert Gilbert Burns winning three out of five simulations”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Belal Muhammad “I gotta go with Bilal for this”
SH Sherdog.com picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “I think I'm just about going for below the team of my week I think here”
HB Half The Battle picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “Bilal Muhammad is my pick” $2.25
CD Cappers Direct picks Belal Muhammad “I personally favor Belal Muhammad currently slightly”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Muhammad24-5
L Bonfim Decision · R5 Jun '26
L Garry Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Maddalena Decision · R5 May '25
W Edwards Decision · R5 Jul '24
W Burns Decision · R5 May '23
Burns22-9
L Malott KO/TKO · R3 Apr '26
L Morales KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Brady Decision · R5 Sep '24
L Maddalena KO/TKO · R3 Mar '24
L Muhammad Decision · R5 May '23