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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Padilla v Erosa
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Padilla 16-5
VS
0-0 Erosa
6'1"
height
6'1"
145 lb
weight
145 lb
76"
reach
74"
29
age
36
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
6.5
strikes landed / min
6.2
42%
striking accuracy
48%
5.2
strikes absorbed / min
6.3
53%
striking defence
48%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.7
0%
takedown accuracy
48%
100%
takedown defence
58%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I'm picking the Fernando Fernando Padilla Fernando Padilla side”
$2.30
MMA EXPERTS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I'm picking the Fernando Fernando Padilla Fernando Padilla side”
$2.30
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I'm gonna pick the side of uh Fernando Padilla to win upset”
$2.26
MMA EXPERTS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I'm gonna pick the side of uh Fernando Padilla to win upset”
$2.26
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I moved to Rodolfo even though like uh what what we see from brandage”
$2.25
101MMA Clinic picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I moved to Rodolfo even though like uh what what we see from brandage”
$2.25
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Julian Erosa VALUE
“I'm going with Julian Erosa is if you look at his resume like the the guys that he's able to finish it's uh Charles Jordan he finished him with a sub”
$1.69
101MMA Clinic picks Julian Erosa VALUE
“I'm going with Julian Erosa is if you look at his resume like the the guys that he's able to finish it's uh Charles Jordan he finished him with a sub”
$1.69
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I don't mind some Fernando Padilla I'm not really picking him to win the fight I think his takedown defense is very bad and Julian Erosa is going to exploit that but um Juliana Rose is just not a guy I can really trust”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I don't mind some Fernando Padilla I'm not really picking him to win the fight I think his takedown defense is very bad and Julian Erosa is going to exploit that but um Juliana Rose is just not a guy I can really trust”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Fernando Padilla
“give me Julian Arosa to win the match up”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Fernando Padilla
“give me Julian Arosa to win the match up”
KU
Kunath picks Fernando Padilla
“I will take a shot on on the young guy I think it makes sense”
Kunath picks Fernando Padilla
“I will take a shot on on the young guy I think it makes sense”
KU
Kunath picks Julian Erosa
“I'm gonna pick Arosa”
Kunath picks Julian Erosa
“I'm gonna pick Arosa”
PR
Premium-Picks picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I like Fernando Fernando Padilla”
Premium-Picks picks Fernando Padilla VALUE
“I like Fernando Fernando Padilla”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Padilla16-5
L
Woodson
Dec '24
W
Pajuelo
Mar '24
L
Nelson
Sep '23
W
Erosa
Apr '23
Erosa0-0
L
Douglas
Mar '26
L
Costa
May '25
W
Elkins
Apr '25
W
Rodriguez
Jul '24
W
Ramos
Mar '24