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Diaz vs FergusonMain Card · Welterweight
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Chimaev vs HollandMain Card · Catchweight
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LJ
Rodriguez vs JingliangMain Card · Catchweight
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MC
Aldana vs ChiassonMain Card · Catchweight
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Walker vs CuțelabaMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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HD
Erosa vs DawoduPreliminary Card · Catchweight
JA
AT
Almeida vs TurkaljPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DT
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Tiuliulin vs PickettPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Barnett vs CollierPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Dumont vs WolfEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Featherweight
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Heili vs AnheligerEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Diaz v Ferguson
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Diaz 22-13
VS
26-11 Ferguson
5'8"
height
5'11"
136 lb
weight
170 lb
70"
reach
76"
41
age
42
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.6
strikes landed / min
4.9
45%
striking accuracy
45%
3.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
52%
striking defence
55%
1.1
takedowns / 15 min
0.4
30%
takedown accuracy
35%
41%
takedown defence
66%
1.3
submissions / 15 min
0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“I still think Nate Diaz is going to get a win comfortably ... I'm rolling with Nate Diaz to get the pick now.”
MMA Prophecy picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“I still think Nate Diaz is going to get a win comfortably ... I'm rolling with Nate Diaz to get the pick now.”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“i'm gonna be picking Nate Diaz to get the job done”
$2.30
Walk The Line MMA picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“i'm gonna be picking Nate Diaz to get the job done”
$2.30
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Tony Ferguson
“i'm going to have to side with the boogie man Tony Ferguson to win this main event”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Tony Ferguson
“i'm going to have to side with the boogie man Tony Ferguson to win this main event”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“i'm going to be picking Nate Diaz to win a decision in the fight that we probably should have saw years and years ago like i am incredibly happy to see these two throw down i think diaz is gonna touch up Tony Ferguson a bit with the boxing but Tony Ferguson will have moments i think the grappling kind of cancels one another out i think the striking diaz has a little bit better straight shots we're picking diaz for the win by decision”
$2.15
MMA EXPERTS picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“i'm going to be picking Nate Diaz to win a decision in the fight that we probably should have saw years and years ago like i am incredibly happy to see these two throw down i think diaz is gonna touch up Tony Ferguson a bit with the boxing but Tony Ferguson will have moments i think the grappling kind of cancels one another out i think the striking diaz has a little bit better straight shots we're picking diaz for the win by decision”
$2.15
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“it's a good money to put on Nate Diaz seeing that he's the underdog”
101MMA Clinic picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“it's a good money to put on Nate Diaz seeing that he's the underdog”
DS
Dynes Sports picks Nate Diaz
“my money probably will go on the Nate Diaz”
Dynes Sports picks Nate Diaz
“my money probably will go on the Nate Diaz”
KU
Kunath picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“i think there's multiple paths to victory here for the darsh knight and he's going to rise again at this price a Tony Ferguson win is great value”
Kunath picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“i think there's multiple paths to victory here for the darsh knight and he's going to rise again at this price a Tony Ferguson win is great value”
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“we're both we're both going Nate Diaz yeah that's for sure that's for sure let's go for the underdog that's right”
$9.00
101MMA Clinic picks Nate Diaz VALUE
“we're both we're both going Nate Diaz yeah that's for sure that's for sure let's go for the underdog that's right”
$9.00
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Tony Ferguson
“I think their leech is going to get a KO winner I think he's Gonna Knock Tony out”
MMA Prophecy picks Tony Ferguson
“I think their leech is going to get a KO winner I think he's Gonna Knock Tony out”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Diaz22-13
W
Ferguson
Sep '22
L
Edwards
Jun '21
L
Masvidal
Nov '19
W
Pettis
Aug '19
L
McGregor
Aug '16
Ferguson26-11
L
Chiesa
Aug '24
L
Pimblett
Dec '23
L
Green
Jul '23
L
Diaz
Sep '22
L
Chandler
May '22