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UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Reed v Martinez Women'S Strawweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus12 picks · conf 32/99
Reed 4
8 Martinez
GSDW pick Reed
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Reed 8-4 VS 8-1 Martinez
5'3" height 5'2"
115 lb weight 116 lb
63" reach 66"
33 age 28
Orthodox stance Southpaw
3.5 strikes landed / min 3.9
53% striking accuracy 52%
3.1 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
53% striking defence 55%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
60% takedown accuracy 50%
56% takedown defence 25%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MP MMA Prophecy picks Elise Reed VALUE “I'm switching my pick here I'm now taking Elise Reed to get the win in this one.”
WP We Want Picks picks Melissa Martinez “i do think Melissa Martinez wins”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Melissa Martinez “i've picked her by a close decision i think it's a 50-50 flip-flop flop fight if you're betting you're going to lease reid but i will ever so slightly lean Melissa Martinez decision here and stick with the pick but damn i'm definitely concerned that she loses a decision here it's dogger pass 100 Elise Reed is plus 155 Melissa Martinez minus 175” $1.57
WP We Want Picks picks Melissa Martinez “i think Melissa Martinez wins this fight”
MP MMA Prophecy picks Melissa Martinez “Melissa Martinez to out point a runner striking”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Elise Reed VALUE “i'm gonna take the dog here and elise reed to get it done i think it's going to be a very very close and competitive fight um and i'm gonna say Elise Reed wins this one by decision” $2.50
HB Half The Battle picks Elise Reed VALUE “i see a lot of sharp people taking the shot on Elise Reed” $2.40
HB Half The Battle picks Melissa Martinez “i'm gonna go with Melissa Martinez to win a controversial split decision here” $1.61
1M 138 MMA picks Melissa Martinez “i'll ever so slightly take martinez”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Elise Reed VALUE “i really like Elise Reed here for the upset” $2.48
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Melissa Martinez “i'm going to side with the newcomer Melissa Martinez super mellie in her ufc debut”
AM Artem MMA picks Melissa Martinez “so i'm picking Melissa Martinez no confidence at all”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Reed8-4
L Gomes KO/TKO · R2 May '25
W Penne Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Godinez Submission · R2 Sep '23
W Frey Decision · R3 Jun '23
L Lookboonmee Submission · R2 Feb '23
Martinez8-1
L Kline KO/TKO · R3 Jul '25
W Ardelean Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Reed Decision · R3 Sep '22