MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Choose a fight to analyse
ND TF Diaz vs FergusonMain Card · Welterweight KC KH Chimaev vs HollandMain Card · Catchweight DR LJ Rodriguez vs JingliangMain Card · Catchweight IA MC Aldana vs ChiassonMain Card · Catchweight JW IC Walker vs CuțelabaMain Card · Light Heavyweight JE HD Erosa vs DawoduPreliminary Card · Catchweight JA AT Almeida vs TurkaljPreliminary Card · Catchweight DT JP Tiuliulin vs PickettPreliminary Card · Middleweight CB JC Barnett vs CollierPreliminary Card · Catchweight ND DW Dumont vs WolfEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Featherweight AH CA Heili vs AnheligerEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight ER MM Reed vs MartinezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight YL DW Lainesse vs WeeksEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Barnett v Collier Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus12 picks · conf 32/99
Barnett 2
10 Collier
KT pick Barnett
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Barnett 23-9 VS 13-10 Collier
5'9" height —
264 lb weight —
75" reach —
40 age 37
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 5.8
47% striking accuracy 44%
6.5 strikes absorbed / min 5.1
39% striking defence 50%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.7
0% takedown accuracy 33%
33% takedown defence 67%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MP MMA Prophecy picks Jake Collier VALUE “I'm still gonna go with Jake Collier to get the win he's the bigger guy he's dangerous.”
WP We Want Picks picks Jake Collier VALUE “jay collier is going to win this fight” $92.00
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jake Collier “i've picked Jake Collier throughout the week i am riding with Jake Collier by decision Chris Barnett fun guy to watch it'd be a cool story to see him win the fight for sure and i don't think barnett deserves to be this big of a favorite” $1.25
WP We Want Picks picks Jake Collier “jay collier is going to win this fight”
KU Kunath picks Chris Barnett VALUE “chris barnett decent value here at 7100 i would definitely prefer it from a draftking's perspective going with this side than the other side of this matchup”
MP MMA Prophecy picks Jake Collier “my pick is Jake Collier I do think he'll get the job done”
MP MMA Prophecy picks Chris Barnett “my pick is Jake Collier”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jake Collier VALUE “jake collier to win by second round sub” $1.22
HB Half The Battle picks Jake Collier “pure pick is jay collier” $1.24
HB Half The Battle picks Chris Barnett VALUE “it's heavyweight anybody could get caught” $4.30
1M 138 MMA picks Jake Collier “the pick is obvious for Jake Collier”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jake Collier “i'm gonna side with Jake Collier to win this match up”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Barnett23-9
L Abdelwahab Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Nzechukwu KO/TKO · R1 Oct '24
W Collier KO/TKO · R2 Sep '22
L Buday Decision · R3 Apr '22
W Villante KO/TKO · R2 Nov '21
Collier13-10
L Usman Decision · R3 Sep '23
L Buday Decision · R3 Apr '23
L Barnett KO/TKO · R2 Sep '22
L Arlovski Decision · R3 Apr '22
W Sherman Submission · R1 Jan '22