Choose a fight to analyse
ND
TF
Diaz vs FergusonMain Card · Welterweight
KC
KH
Chimaev vs HollandMain Card · Catchweight
DR
LJ
Rodriguez vs JingliangMain Card · Catchweight
IA
MC
Aldana vs ChiassonMain Card · Catchweight
JW
IC
Walker vs CuțelabaMain Card · Light Heavyweight
JE
HD
Erosa vs DawoduPreliminary Card · Catchweight
JA
AT
Almeida vs TurkaljPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DT
JP
Tiuliulin vs PickettPreliminary Card · Middleweight
CB
JC
Barnett vs CollierPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ND
DW
Dumont vs WolfEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Featherweight
AH
CA
Heili vs AnheligerEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
ER
MM
Reed vs MartinezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
YL
DW
Lainesse vs WeeksEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
TF
Diaz vs FergusonMain Card · Welterweight
KC
KH
Chimaev vs HollandMain Card · Catchweight
DR
LJ
Rodriguez vs JingliangMain Card · Catchweight
IA
MC
Aldana vs ChiassonMain Card · Catchweight
JW
IC
Walker vs CuțelabaMain Card · Light Heavyweight
JE
HD
Erosa vs DawoduPreliminary Card · Catchweight
JA
AT
Almeida vs TurkaljPreliminary Card · Catchweight
DT
JP
Tiuliulin vs PickettPreliminary Card · Middleweight
CB
JC
Barnett vs CollierPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ND
DW
Dumont vs WolfEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Featherweight
AH
CA
Heili vs AnheligerEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
ER
MM
Reed vs MartinezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
YL
DW
Lainesse vs WeeksEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Erosa v Dawodu
Catchweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus13 picks · conf 34/99
A
pick Erosa
pick Erosa
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Erosa 0-0
VS
13-4-1 Dawodu
6'1"
height
5'8"
145 lb
weight
146 lb
74"
reach
74"
36
age
35
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
6.2
strikes landed / min
5.5
48%
striking accuracy
50%
6.3
strikes absorbed / min
3.4
48%
striking defence
56%
1.7
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
48%
takedown accuracy
0%
58%
takedown defence
65%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“we're taking toward you to get a one in that one and I am feeling the KO he's really dangerous on the inside.”
MMA Prophecy picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“we're taking toward you to get a one in that one and I am feeling the KO he's really dangerous on the inside.”
WP
We Want Picks picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“i think hakeem gets this done”
We Want Picks picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“i think hakeem gets this done”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Hakeem Dawodu
“i think he should knock him out i think he should find a lot of opening striking on Julian Erosa who's a very awkward kickboxer hanNate Diaz are low weird movement odd guy to Elise Reed i think dawudu doesn't fall into those traps i think he's just clearly technically superior striking and you're gonna see him show that he's the better stand up fighter here and i don't really necessarily see a rosa having much offensive wrestling success Hakeem Dawodu for the win i'm going to say kotko”
$1.50
MMA EXPERTS picks Hakeem Dawodu
“i think he should knock him out i think he should find a lot of opening striking on Julian Erosa who's a very awkward kickboxer hanNate Diaz are low weird movement odd guy to Elise Reed i think dawudu doesn't fall into those traps i think he's just clearly technically superior striking and you're gonna see him show that he's the better stand up fighter here and i don't really necessarily see a rosa having much offensive wrestling success Hakeem Dawodu for the win i'm going to say kotko”
$1.50
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Julian Erosa VALUE
“i don't mind some shots on juliana rosa”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Julian Erosa VALUE
“i don't mind some shots on juliana rosa”
WP
We Want Picks picks Hakeem Dawodu
“i think hakeem gets this done”
We Want Picks picks Hakeem Dawodu
“i think hakeem gets this done”
KU
Kunath picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“i like Hakeem Dawodu”
Kunath picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“i like Hakeem Dawodu”
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Hakeem Dawodu
“I'm really confident what that would do on this one”
MMA Prophecy picks Hakeem Dawodu
“I'm really confident what that would do on this one”
MP
MMA Prophecy picks Julian Erosa
“I like it I'm really confident what that would do on this one a rose is just not got a good style to fight that would do let's be real he likes to hand hold his hands too low gives me anxiety stresses me out don't like it”
MMA Prophecy picks Julian Erosa
“I like it I'm really confident what that would do on this one a rose is just not got a good style to fight that would do let's be real he likes to hand hold his hands too low gives me anxiety stresses me out don't like it”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“give me uh the water to win i wanted to win my second round knockout”
$1.45
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“give me uh the water to win i wanted to win my second round knockout”
$1.45
SH
Sherdog.com picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“it's Hakeem Dawodu at minus two or five uh to beat Julian Erosa”
$1.49
Sherdog.com picks Hakeem Dawodu VALUE
“it's Hakeem Dawodu at minus two or five uh to beat Julian Erosa”
$1.49
HB
Half The Battle picks Hakeem Dawodu
“i see Hakeem Dawodu either winning by knockout or by decision”
$1.47
Half The Battle picks Hakeem Dawodu
“i see Hakeem Dawodu either winning by knockout or by decision”
$1.47
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Erosa0-0
L
Douglas
Mar '26
L
Costa
May '25
W
Elkins
Apr '25
W
Rodriguez
Jul '24
W
Ramos
Mar '24
Dawodu13-4-1
L
Swanson
Aug '23
L
Erosa
Sep '22
W
Trizano
Feb '22
L
Evloev
Jun '21
W
Tukhugov
Sep '20