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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
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YX MD Xiaonan vs DernMain Card · Women'S Strawweight RB FT Brown vs TrinaldoMain Card · Welterweight RB TJ Barcelos vs JonesMain Card · Bantamweight SY DS Yusuff vs ShainisMain Card · Featherweight MD VB Davis vs BorshchevMain Card · Lightweight DS JC Santos vs CastañedaPreliminary Card · Catchweight IL AO Latifi vs OleinikPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JS JR Silva vs RonsonPreliminary Card · Lightweight BA KJ Allen vs JotkoPreliminary Card · Middleweight CC JS Chandler vs StoliarenkoPreliminary Card · Catchweight GC RC Cannetti vs CostaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Barcelos v Jones Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus8 picks · conf 24/99
Barcelos 6
2 Jones
USATDW pick Barcelos
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Barcelos 21-5 VS 13-10 Jones
5'7" height —
136 lb weight —
67" reach —
39 age 35
Orthodox stance Southpaw
5.2 strikes landed / min 2.1
51% striking accuracy 37%
4.8 strikes absorbed / min 4.3
61% striking defence 39%
1.9 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
32% takedown accuracy 15%
85% takedown defence 60%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Trevin Jones VALUE “so I'm gonna go with Trevin Jones and just so we have something different” $2.95
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Raoni Barcelos “I still got barcelos in this one just because he's got a little bit more experience in there”
WP We Want Picks picks Trevin Jones “Raoni Barcelos is the pick”
WP We Want Picks picks Raoni Barcelos VALUE “I think Maxim Grisham wins this fight”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Raoni Barcelos “I still got barcelos in this one” $1.43
1C 101MMA Clinic picks Trevin Jones VALUE “I'm gonna go with traven” $2.95
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Raoni Barcelos VALUE “give me Raoni Barcelos to win this fight and barcel's to win this fight by decision probably a 30-27” $1.43
SD Santino DeFranco picks Raoni Barcelos VALUE “I like Tabitha here”
TF The ICE Files picks Raoni Barcelos “I'm gonna go with Maxine Grisham”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Raoni Barcelos VALUE “I'm gonna side with Rioni barcelos to show his skill against Trevin Jones Jones”
WP We Want Picks picks Trevin Jones “the pick is Jesse”
AM Artem MMA picks Raoni Barcelos “I'm gonna be picking Tabitha Richie in this one here”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Barcelos21-5
W Jackson Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Simón Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Garbrandt Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Talbott Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Quiñonez Submission · R3 Feb '24
Jones13-10
L Garbrandt Decision · R3 Mar '23
L Barcelos Decision · R3 Oct '22
L Basharat Decision · R3 Mar '22
L Kakhramonov Submission · R3 Aug '21
W Bautista KO/TKO · R2 Mar '21