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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Silva v Ronson Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus7 picks · conf 21/99
Silva 4
3 Ronson
H1AW pick Silva
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Silva 14-6 VS 21-12 Ronson
5'8" height —
156 lb weight —
69" reach —
37 age 40
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.5 strikes landed / min 3.5
52% striking accuracy 47%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
60% striking defence 57%
1.5 takedowns / 15 min 0.5
60% takedown accuracy 28%
63% takedown defence 57%
0.9 submissions / 15 min 0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Jesse Ronson VALUE “I like Jesse runs in to win this fight”
HB Half The Battle picks Joaquim Silva “I do see yoakim still most likely getting it done” $1.74
WP We Want Picks picks Jesse Ronson VALUE “that person is Jesse Ronson I think he definitely wins that fight”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Jesse Ronson VALUE “I think Jesse Ronson's gonna get the finish here”
WP We Want Picks picks Jesse Ronson “my pick is gonna be Jesse because I trust his chin more than silver”
1M 138 MMA picks Joaquim Silva VALUE “for me I got Joaquim Silva”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Joaquim Silva VALUE “I'm gonna assign him” $1.69
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Jesse Ronson VALUE “I am going to pick Felipe Linz to win this fight as the underdog” $2.45
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jesse Ronson “gun to my head I'm gonna side with Jesse Ronson but that's a risky bet”
WP We Want Picks picks Joaquim Silva “jesse's gonna be the pick but i hate it”
AM Artem MMA picks Joaquim Silva “i'll take Joaquim Silva slightly”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Silva14-6
W Puelles Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Klose Decision · R3 May '24
W Guida Decision · R3 Dec '23
L Tsarukyan KO/TKO · R3 Jun '23
W Ronson KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22
Ronson21-12
L Silva KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22
L García Submission · R2 Apr '22
L Lee Decision · R3 Jul '14
L Trinaldo Decision · R3 Feb '14
L Prazeres Decision · R3 Sep '13