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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Santos v Castañeda Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus11 picks · conf 31/99
Santos 4
7 Castañeda
MSDW pick Santos
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Santos 14-2 VS 21-7 Castañeda
5'7" height —
151 lb weight —
67" reach —
31 age 34
Orthodox stance Switch
2.8 strikes landed / min 4.7
42% striking accuracy 50%
4.1 strikes absorbed / min 5.2
55% striking defence 54%
1.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.8
48% takedown accuracy 35%
76% takedown defence 71%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks John Castañeda VALUE “I absolutely think he wins this fight”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Daniel Santos VALUE “I'm riding with Daniel Santos to pull off the upset win”
1C 101MMA Clinic picks John Castañeda VALUE “so I see John Castañeda winning this one” $1.53
1C 101MMA Clinic picks John Castañeda “I think John will be too much for him so I see Jon winning this one” $1.53
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Daniel Santos VALUE “give me a Daniel Santos to get it done kind of shocked the world here I know casting is a very popular parlay piece this week but I think we're going to see a much ViacheViacheslav Borshchev Borshchev version of Daniel Daniel Santos Daniel Santos this time out I'm going to say he wins this fight by decision here so Daniel Daniel Santos Daniel Santos to win Dana Daniel Santos to win by decision” $2.60
SD Santino DeFranco picks Daniel Santos “I'm gonna choose a leader latifi”
1M 138 MMA picks John Castañeda VALUE “for me John Castaneda has almost all the value there” $1.45
WM Walk The Line MMA picks John Castañeda VALUE “I'm gonna be going Castaneda here” $1.50
TF The ICE Files picks John Castañeda “I'm slightly leaning towards John Castaneda”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks John Castañeda VALUE “I think Castaneda is going to prove to be the better mix martial artist and for me like I said the better mix martial artist it's going to be John Castañeda”
GP Greedo Plays picks John Castañeda “I got Castaneda to beat Santos I think he gets the job done by decision again just all striking out of Castaneda propelling him to Victory”
WP We Want Picks picks Daniel Santos “Castaneda is absolutely the pick”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Santos14-2
L Doo-ho KO/TKO · R2 May '26
W Joo-sang KO/TKO · R2 Oct '25
W Jeong-yeong Decision · R3 May '25
W Jr. Decision · R3 Jun '23
W Castañeda KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22
Castañeda21-7
L Gutiérrez Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Marcos Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Kyung-ho Decision · R3 Nov '23
W Gafurov Decision · R3 Jun '23
L Santos KO/TKO · R2 Oct '22