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Costa vs RockholdMain Card · Middleweight
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Dvalishvili vs AldoMain Card · Bantamweight
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Pudilová vs YananMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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HH
Pedro vs HunsuckerMain Card · Light Heavyweight
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Gordon vs SantosPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Edwards v Usman
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Edwards 22-5
VS
20-4 Usman
6'2"
height
6'0"
171 lb
weight
171 lb
74"
reach
76"
34
age
39
Southpaw
stance
Switch
3.9
strikes landed / min
4.4
48%
striking accuracy
52%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
2.7
60%
striking defence
54%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
2.8
39%
takedown accuracy
45%
73%
takedown defence
89%
0.3
submissions / 15 min
0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
1C
101MMA Clinic picks Leon Edwards
“and now i think Leon Edwards is hungry wolf you know like”
$4.10
101MMA Clinic picks Leon Edwards
“and now i think Leon Edwards is hungry wolf you know like”
$4.10
WP
We Want Picks picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i absolutely think kamara Kamaru Usman dominates this fight”
We Want Picks picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i absolutely think kamara Kamaru Usman dominates this fight”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Leon Edwards
“i just don't see how edwards can win”
MMA EXPERTS picks Leon Edwards
“i just don't see how edwards can win”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i just don't see how edwards can win”
MMA EXPERTS picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i just don't see how edwards can win”
KU
Kunath picks Kamaru Usman
“i've got camaro uzman”
Kunath picks Kamaru Usman
“i've got camaro uzman”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i think it's gonna be a real close fight i think it goes all three rounds for sure um man i'm rocking i'm rocking with NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 but i think all those gonna make it interesting at some point that rob's gonna have to like be forced to grapple you know he's gonna be in some trouble although might catch him with a couple like kicks you said because or even you know what is striking you know and i think morale is going to have to like work to really stick to the grappling game plan man that's true we got a little jay i got José Aldo in this one i like the experience here i know marabs on a nine fight win streak but i'm just gonna go with the take down the uh defense to hold up and him to keep uh NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 at bay with his um better striking i like this one to go the distance i got José Aldo points okay okay i feel y'all honestly what's up go ahead real hot fighters i mean for sure although as his his mommy lost recently is NOT_IN_ROSTER_6 right and that's that's you know the best in the division damn here you know so there's more NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 on a super hot streak low key hey um José Aldo's three and two of his last fight fights uh morabs five-and-oh last five fights i don't know if y'all peep though José Aldo José Aldo he was talking about oh i wanna win the title and retire with it like you already think about retirement that's just in your head already i don't know uh and NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 i think i got him around NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 man i've been watching this guy for years bro and he's upcoming in this division he's not a a wrestler he's more of a judo guy but i still think his [ __ ] wrestling but i still think he [ __ ] gets it done man yeah José Aldo he's really good with tdot defense i'm not gonna lie he really is but i just think NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 is different bro he's gonna smother him and go win by points honestly if you control that [ __ ] on the ground control that show on the gate clinch whatever the hell you got to do to win this could be a big one from around the machine there's a big test for him though honestly i like him right hold on you said what it's a big age gap too between the two right uh José Aldo's not that old he's 35 years old yeah he's not that old yeah he's been around for so long yeah no but uh i think you might be telling us like right in the story as we're gonna see it if José Aldo loses i mean he wants to fight for a title and retire that's every fighter's you know goal but if he starts getting by uh stopped by guys like NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 and probably fight another fight if he loses after this if he maybe we see uh José Aldo hanging it up soon i don't know yeah you know former champ used to be a former champion used to be in the [ __ ] ufc forever man for a long time but i don't know it's tough to call on this one because José Aldo's been hot for the past few fights man and he's it's not like he's fighting bombs he's fighting some great fighters so yeah it's gonna be really interesting we all got marathon machine little jay guys José Aldo that's about it man uh the next one though Paulo Costa versus Luke Rockhold who [ __ ] out jesus christ i'll go first on this one this is a mistake from the jump in my opinion but i'm only saying that because luke NOT_IN_ROSTER_8's being out at the [ __ ] game for too long bro his last fight was what against NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 and you gotta knock the [ __ ] out three years ago bro exactly and i don't know man i keep seeing all these interviews with him and he just seems a little bit off he doesn't seem like he's all there man like i feel like ct's getting to his ass to some [ __ ] he seems a little bit like he psyched himself out of the fight but that's giving too much credit to Paulo Costa's ass but hasn't really had that bad of a streak i mean besides that one is he lost and and obviously that that shitty like where he didn't weigh in at the right weight against uh um what's his name NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 the guy actually was still a wrecking ball in the [ __ ] middleweight division before like all this [ __ ] happened i don't think this fight's gonna last long i honestly see this fight ending a knockout and i got close to knocking out Luke Rockhold blue bronco just doesn't have a chin bro and the [ __ ] hasn't had one for years so i'm gonna double down on that i'm gonna go uh by finished knockout uh rock rockhold looks old like oh yeah 37 years old i don't know i think that the ufc has evolved so much it's not like 10 years ago where you could take that three-year layoff and you would still be fighting guys of equal competition you'd have a good chance of winning that's i think the ufc has uh evolved way too much that three years off it's just gonna you're gonna see it when it gets in there you could practice and spar you could have a great camp but if you haven't had any uh real octagon action in three years i gotta take the other guy by yeah i agree talk about a all great campaign at middleweight despite you know his last fight was that light heavyweight mm-hmm no like oh wait there's 20 pounds of a difference you know that's a huge difference man yeah i think we shouldn't overthink this one i really i really like post the tko oh yeah i agree with you all too i i got close to tko as well i don't know if y'all seen a picture of luke park hold up today or recently but he looks [ __ ] drained this fight too man he's he's not overlooking Luke Rockhold no matter what the [ __ ] you know what i'm saying he's old and [ __ ] like that he's not overlooking him he's humble he said he had a good training camp i'm i'm [ __ ] with coastal knockout on this one too y'all i don't see it going three rounds i mean even though luke crocodile he has a longer reach but i still think i don't mean [ __ ] man that three years haven't fought in the ufc i don't know that's actually a great prop but i think that uh round one knockout and round two knockout just puts singles on both of those even if you put 20 on each i don't think this fight's going three rounds no no hell that'd be crazy but yeah man we all got Paulo Costa on this one knockout yeah let's get it man the main event though NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 used versus Leon Edwards who the [ __ ] y'all got andrew oh [ __ ] i'm gonna go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 man uh the guy's just been on a [ __ ] just crazy streak the way he's been winning these fights lately man the way that he's just been putting people away he already beat Leon Edwards once a long time ago i get it it was in the past but it's not like Kamaru Usman stopped growing as a fighter husband only got better i get leon did too but bro come on leon got rocked by NOT_IN_ROSTER_14 at the last second you make a little mistake like that against looseman you're getting put the [ __ ] out that is a fact Kamaru Usman is just on a hot streak man and people are saying that maybe the fame's getting to his head and everything but the last couple fights have proven that that's wrong man useman's just too good right now i don't think he's going to get beaten by Leon Edwards i just think it's his time man i think i got uh who's been finishing it where it's probably in the fourth round or something late finish cko though not going to be knocked out i think it's like a ground and pound finish we all want to go next NOT_IN_ROSTER_16 all right i got um i gotta go Kamaru Usman in this fight i think people aren't giving credit to leon Leon Edwards as he should be getting but when somebody's got a jab that's like a piston that's what oozman possesses it's really hard to get to the person he knows what he's doing he's going to keep him at bay with the jab it's going to be the same old song and dance and if he does get um hurt on the feet a little bit i i think Kamaru Usman can take him down no problem Kamaru Usman's just stronger faster i like Leon Edwards in this one but for him to get a win it would have to be catching Kamaru Usman like on some real crazy surprise head kick or wild i'm not projecting that for this fight i got Kamaru Usman but in the distance okay okay so we got bart so Kamaru Usman is on what a ten fight win streak right now it's something [ __ ] like that cheese before you say they hold the hold on if kamal goes with wins he's making history he ties anderson silva for the most winning streak in ufc so he's at 15. Leon Edwards if he didn't have that below fight with the i poke he's at nine straight wins um with that one the last person leon Leon Edwards lost who was oozman i believe yeah well it's a control time in that fight yeah he had he had like six takedowns in a three-round fight um i honestly like this to go over three and a half i can't go against Kamaru Usman you know he wants that 16. you know he wants dead sweet 16. he's more you know like you just can't go against him 15 straight wins like and he's not even like he's a big underdog but and i still think it's going to be a close fight Leon Edwards is going to give him some trouble that maybe NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 like you know like gave him on the strike yeah yeah but man Kamaru Usman's gonna take it this was guys i agree with you all too i got Kamaru Usman winning this one i mean yeah i already i said earlier man 15 win streak if he wins [ __ ] saturday he ties and makes history i'm gonna go with that man uh how is the fight is gonna end oh man i think points look it's either on points or knockout so i might do double chance points or knockout i can see him you know controlling the time throughout the whole fight clinching on the cage or ground or some [ __ ] to get the points or we could see the Kamaru Usman who's been [ __ ] improving with his hands and knocking his [ __ ] out so yeah yeah that's that's what i got for the double chance man honestly i think it's a good fight to be made though in other words you know like this was the fight to be made in the welterweight division there's literally nothing else so you know mate Leon Edwards men haven't fun each other in a long time NOT_IN_ROSTER_13's gotten beat twice pretty recent he's got i wonder what's next for his men if he doesn't win that i'm really curious probably NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 no then why said it NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 wins against NOT_IN_ROSTER_14 they're going to make that fight oh [ __ ] don't duck humans it's either NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 but Kamaru Usman wants to go up to 205 which you know that's ridiculous i don't know about that [ __ ] it's weird i don't kind of think Kamaru Usman is crazy he's down some top three pound-for-pound fighters i don't put him above NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 but i do think that he is uh in a division that doesn't have as much like firepower as the other ones i don't know welterweight's kind of washed up he's already beat everybody there's nobody challenged now you guys are like no yeah i just think that there's nothing left for guzman in the welterweight division like really not at all if he wins this fight and then beats the wolf like i could see the guy being done and going to make movies like i don't blame him he's been just everybody like what more is there to prove you know so i don't know i don't really like this fight to be honest i think Leon Edwards is going to get dominated dude i think he may clip uh oozman like once but i just see pure dominance almost like a NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 approach in this one yeah same honestly i think the same [ __ ] to be honest we're all on the same page here and [ __ ] let me go through one more time morab NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 versus José Aldo me andrew bart we all got morab little j god José Aldo next one we all got paul closer by knockout and we all got who's been the main event that's right let's get it y'all stay tuned for the next episode tune in this saturday let's get it man let's get this bread and that's freezing upon us you said what football season the promise y'all i'm sure we're gonna have some fantasy football podcast yeah through the weeks as it's going on i know all of us are in the league oh yeah fun tune in let's get it man peace out y'all appreciate y'all like subscribe share peace”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Kamaru Usman VALUE
“i think it's gonna be a real close fight i think it goes all three rounds for sure um man i'm rocking i'm rocking with NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 but i think all those gonna make it interesting at some point that rob's gonna have to like be forced to grapple you know he's gonna be in some trouble although might catch him with a couple like kicks you said because or even you know what is striking you know and i think morale is going to have to like work to really stick to the grappling game plan man that's true we got a little jay i got José Aldo in this one i like the experience here i know marabs on a nine fight win streak but i'm just gonna go with the take down the uh defense to hold up and him to keep uh NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 at bay with his um better striking i like this one to go the distance i got José Aldo points okay okay i feel y'all honestly what's up go ahead real hot fighters i mean for sure although as his his mommy lost recently is NOT_IN_ROSTER_6 right and that's that's you know the best in the division damn here you know so there's more NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 on a super hot streak low key hey um José Aldo's three and two of his last fight fights uh morabs five-and-oh last five fights i don't know if y'all peep though José Aldo José Aldo he was talking about oh i wanna win the title and retire with it like you already think about retirement that's just in your head already i don't know uh and NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 i think i got him around NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 man i've been watching this guy for years bro and he's upcoming in this division he's not a a wrestler he's more of a judo guy but i still think his [ __ ] wrestling but i still think he [ __ ] gets it done man yeah José Aldo he's really good with tdot defense i'm not gonna lie he really is but i just think NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 is different bro he's gonna smother him and go win by points honestly if you control that [ __ ] on the ground control that show on the gate clinch whatever the hell you got to do to win this could be a big one from around the machine there's a big test for him though honestly i like him right hold on you said what it's a big age gap too between the two right uh José Aldo's not that old he's 35 years old yeah he's not that old yeah he's been around for so long yeah no but uh i think you might be telling us like right in the story as we're gonna see it if José Aldo loses i mean he wants to fight for a title and retire that's every fighter's you know goal but if he starts getting by uh stopped by guys like NOT_IN_ROSTER_4 and probably fight another fight if he loses after this if he maybe we see uh José Aldo hanging it up soon i don't know yeah you know former champ used to be a former champion used to be in the [ __ ] ufc forever man for a long time but i don't know it's tough to call on this one because José Aldo's been hot for the past few fights man and he's it's not like he's fighting bombs he's fighting some great fighters so yeah it's gonna be really interesting we all got marathon machine little jay guys José Aldo that's about it man uh the next one though Paulo Costa versus Luke Rockhold who [ __ ] out jesus christ i'll go first on this one this is a mistake from the jump in my opinion but i'm only saying that because luke NOT_IN_ROSTER_8's being out at the [ __ ] game for too long bro his last fight was what against NOT_IN_ROSTER_9 and you gotta knock the [ __ ] out three years ago bro exactly and i don't know man i keep seeing all these interviews with him and he just seems a little bit off he doesn't seem like he's all there man like i feel like ct's getting to his ass to some [ __ ] he seems a little bit like he psyched himself out of the fight but that's giving too much credit to Paulo Costa's ass but hasn't really had that bad of a streak i mean besides that one is he lost and and obviously that that shitty like where he didn't weigh in at the right weight against uh um what's his name NOT_IN_ROSTER_10 the guy actually was still a wrecking ball in the [ __ ] middleweight division before like all this [ __ ] happened i don't think this fight's gonna last long i honestly see this fight ending a knockout and i got close to knocking out Luke Rockhold blue bronco just doesn't have a chin bro and the [ __ ] hasn't had one for years so i'm gonna double down on that i'm gonna go uh by finished knockout uh rock rockhold looks old like oh yeah 37 years old i don't know i think that the ufc has evolved so much it's not like 10 years ago where you could take that three-year layoff and you would still be fighting guys of equal competition you'd have a good chance of winning that's i think the ufc has uh evolved way too much that three years off it's just gonna you're gonna see it when it gets in there you could practice and spar you could have a great camp but if you haven't had any uh real octagon action in three years i gotta take the other guy by yeah i agree talk about a all great campaign at middleweight despite you know his last fight was that light heavyweight mm-hmm no like oh wait there's 20 pounds of a difference you know that's a huge difference man yeah i think we shouldn't overthink this one i really i really like post the tko oh yeah i agree with you all too i i got close to tko as well i don't know if y'all seen a picture of luke park hold up today or recently but he looks [ __ ] drained this fight too man he's he's not overlooking Luke Rockhold no matter what the [ __ ] you know what i'm saying he's old and [ __ ] like that he's not overlooking him he's humble he said he had a good training camp i'm i'm [ __ ] with coastal knockout on this one too y'all i don't see it going three rounds i mean even though luke crocodile he has a longer reach but i still think i don't mean [ __ ] man that three years haven't fought in the ufc i don't know that's actually a great prop but i think that uh round one knockout and round two knockout just puts singles on both of those even if you put 20 on each i don't think this fight's going three rounds no no hell that'd be crazy but yeah man we all got Paulo Costa on this one knockout yeah let's get it man the main event though NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 used versus Leon Edwards who the [ __ ] y'all got andrew oh [ __ ] i'm gonna go with NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 man uh the guy's just been on a [ __ ] just crazy streak the way he's been winning these fights lately man the way that he's just been putting people away he already beat Leon Edwards once a long time ago i get it it was in the past but it's not like Kamaru Usman stopped growing as a fighter husband only got better i get leon did too but bro come on leon got rocked by NOT_IN_ROSTER_14 at the last second you make a little mistake like that against looseman you're getting put the [ __ ] out that is a fact Kamaru Usman is just on a hot streak man and people are saying that maybe the fame's getting to his head and everything but the last couple fights have proven that that's wrong man useman's just too good right now i don't think he's going to get beaten by Leon Edwards i just think it's his time man i think i got uh who's been finishing it where it's probably in the fourth round or something late finish cko though not going to be knocked out i think it's like a ground and pound finish we all want to go next NOT_IN_ROSTER_16 all right i got um i gotta go Kamaru Usman in this fight i think people aren't giving credit to leon Leon Edwards as he should be getting but when somebody's got a jab that's like a piston that's what oozman possesses it's really hard to get to the person he knows what he's doing he's going to keep him at bay with the jab it's going to be the same old song and dance and if he does get um hurt on the feet a little bit i i think Kamaru Usman can take him down no problem Kamaru Usman's just stronger faster i like Leon Edwards in this one but for him to get a win it would have to be catching Kamaru Usman like on some real crazy surprise head kick or wild i'm not projecting that for this fight i got Kamaru Usman but in the distance okay okay so we got bart so Kamaru Usman is on what a ten fight win streak right now it's something [ __ ] like that cheese before you say they hold the hold on if kamal goes with wins he's making history he ties anderson silva for the most winning streak in ufc so he's at 15. Leon Edwards if he didn't have that below fight with the i poke he's at nine straight wins um with that one the last person leon Leon Edwards lost who was oozman i believe yeah well it's a control time in that fight yeah he had he had like six takedowns in a three-round fight um i honestly like this to go over three and a half i can't go against Kamaru Usman you know he wants that 16. you know he wants dead sweet 16. he's more you know like you just can't go against him 15 straight wins like and he's not even like he's a big underdog but and i still think it's going to be a close fight Leon Edwards is going to give him some trouble that maybe NOT_IN_ROSTER_13 like you know like gave him on the strike yeah yeah but man Kamaru Usman's gonna take it this was guys i agree with you all too i got Kamaru Usman winning this one i mean yeah i already i said earlier man 15 win streak if he wins [ __ ] saturday he ties and makes history i'm gonna go with that man uh how is the fight is gonna end oh man i think points look it's either on points or knockout so i might do double chance points or knockout i can see him you know controlling the time throughout the whole fight clinching on the cage or ground or some [ __ ] to get the points or we could see the Kamaru Usman who's been [ __ ] improving with his hands and knocking his [ __ ] out so yeah yeah that's that's what i got for the double chance man honestly i think it's a good fight to be made though in other words you know like this was the fight to be made in the welterweight division there's literally nothing else so you know mate Leon Edwards men haven't fun each other in a long time NOT_IN_ROSTER_13's gotten beat twice pretty recent he's got i wonder what's next for his men if he doesn't win that i'm really curious probably NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 no then why said it NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 wins against NOT_IN_ROSTER_14 they're going to make that fight oh [ __ ] don't duck humans it's either NOT_IN_ROSTER_15 but Kamaru Usman wants to go up to 205 which you know that's ridiculous i don't know about that [ __ ] it's weird i don't kind of think Kamaru Usman is crazy he's down some top three pound-for-pound fighters i don't put him above NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 but i do think that he is uh in a division that doesn't have as much like firepower as the other ones i don't know welterweight's kind of washed up he's already beat everybody there's nobody challenged now you guys are like no yeah i just think that there's nothing left for guzman in the welterweight division like really not at all if he wins this fight and then beats the wolf like i could see the guy being done and going to make movies like i don't blame him he's been just everybody like what more is there to prove you know so i don't know i don't really like this fight to be honest i think Leon Edwards is going to get dominated dude i think he may clip uh oozman like once but i just see pure dominance almost like a NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 approach in this one yeah same honestly i think the same [ __ ] to be honest we're all on the same page here and [ __ ] let me go through one more time morab NOT_IN_ROSTER_2 versus José Aldo me andrew bart we all got morab little j god José Aldo next one we all got paul closer by knockout and we all got who's been the main event that's right let's get it y'all stay tuned for the next episode tune in this saturday let's get it man let's get this bread and that's freezing upon us you said what football season the promise y'all i'm sure we're gonna have some fantasy football podcast yeah through the weeks as it's going on i know all of us are in the league oh yeah fun tune in let's get it man peace out y'all appreciate y'all like subscribe share peace”
WP
We Want Picks picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“it is going to be the dynamic the striking the somewhat powerful and hopefully the good takedown defense of my do rocky Leon Edwards”
We Want Picks picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“it is going to be the dynamic the striking the somewhat powerful and hopefully the good takedown defense of my do rocky Leon Edwards”
SH
Sherdog.com picks Leon Edwards
“i just can't see a way that Leon Edwards beats him”
Sherdog.com picks Leon Edwards
“i just can't see a way that Leon Edwards beats him”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Edwards22-5
L
Prates
Nov '25
L
Brady
Mar '25
L
Muhammad
Jul '24
W
Covington
Dec '23
W
Usman
Mar '23
Usman20-4
W
Buckley
Jun '25
L
Chimaev
Oct '23
L
Edwards
Mar '23
L
Edwards
Aug '22
W
Covington
Nov '21