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UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Altamirano v Lacerda Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Altamirano 4
2 Lacerda
1GSS pick Altamirano
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Altamirano 12-5 VS 11-6 Lacerda
5'8" height 5'6"
126 lb weight 125 lb
70" reach 70"
35 age 30
Switch stance Switch
4.6 strikes landed / min 4.0
53% striking accuracy 45%
3.8 strikes absorbed / min 8.3
53% striking defence 34%
2.9 takedowns / 15 min 2.3
38% takedown accuracy 50%
63% takedown defence 0%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Daniel Lacerda VALUE “Daniel Lacerda the official pick” $2.55
WP We Want Picks picks Daniel Lacerda VALUE “i do think Daniel Lacerda gets it done”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Victor Altamirano VALUE “i like alto morano here he's not a huge favorite he's a minus 170 but Daniel Lacerda's opponents before the ufc are really not up to the you know these are not great guys um whereas ulta morano has actually beaten a a good amount of decent guys” $1.59
1M 138 MMA picks Victor Altamirano “I'm taking Victor house Murano I think he'll probably get it done by decision”
SH Sherdog.com picks Daniel Lacerda “Victor Altamirano is a minus 184 favor against the plus 159 underdog of Daniel Lacerda” $2.59
SH Sherdog.com picks Victor Altamirano “Victor Altamirano is a minus 184 favor against the plus 159 underdog of Daniel Lacerda” $1.54
GP Greedo Plays picks Victor Altamirano VALUE “i got alex morano to outstrike daniel de silva and win a decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Daniel Lacerda “i do like Daniel Lacerda to get it done because of how incredibly dangerous he is”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Altamirano12-5
L Bárez Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Santos Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Elliott Decision · R3 Jun '23
W Salvador Decision · R3 Mar '23
W Lacerda KO/TKO · R1 Aug '22
Lacerda11-6
L Chairez Submission · R1 Feb '24
L Altamirano KO/TKO · R1 Aug '22
L Figueiredo Submission · R1 Apr '22
L Molina KO/TKO · R2 Oct '21