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UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Gordon v Santos Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus11 picks · conf 31/99
Gordon 10
1 Santos
H1MGUS pick Gordon
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Gordon 21-8 VS 18-7-1 Santos
5'9" height 6'0"
156 lb weight 156 lb
68" reach 75"
37 age 46
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.9 strikes landed / min 2.8
48% striking accuracy 46%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
62% striking defence 54%
2.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.9
61% takedown accuracy 25%
81% takedown defence 86%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jared Gordon VALUE “i think jared gordon should win the fight” $1.42
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jared Gordon “said the alien really likes jiu jitsu and it took Jared Gordon”
WP We Want Picks picks Jared Gordon “i think Jared Gordon wins this fight”
KU Kunath picks Jared Gordon “Jared Gordon's a grinder”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Jared Gordon VALUE “i love Jared Gordon because i know what i'm getting with Jared Gordon he to me is just like the ultra veterans ultra veteran decent striking fine striker uh makes good decisions he gets up he's got good EVENT_DETAILSio he's a grinder he like knows how to like finish it out and win EVENT_DETAILS”
SD Santino DeFranco picks Leonardo Santos VALUE “i like santos here man i like santos i like santos i like santos”
HB Half The Battle picks Jared Gordon VALUE “I'm gonna go with mirab the Wallace” $1.71
1M 138 MMA picks Jared Gordon “otherwise I'm taking him to win this fight shouldn't be too tough for him”
TF The ICE Files picks Leonardo Santos “i think jared gordon should win” $1.32
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Jared Gordon “i see Jared Gordon just trucking through one way or another and and implementing that game plan” $1.32
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Jared Gordon “I'm taking Jared Gordon”
GP Greedo Plays picks Jared Gordon VALUE “i think gordon is able to be in my decision i wouldn't be surprised if he knocked him out but i'm gonna go jared flash gordon here just be leonardo santos”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Gordon21-8
L Miller Submission · R1 May '26
L García KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Moisés KO/TKO · R1 May '25
L Haqparast Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Madsen KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
Santos18-7-1
L Gordon Decision · R3 Aug '22
L Guida Submission · R2 Dec '21
L Dawson KO/TKO · R3 Mar '21
W Bogatov Decision · R3 Jul '20
W Ray KO/TKO · R1 Jun '19