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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Rodríguez v Ortega
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Rodríguez 16-5
VS
16-5 Ortega
—
height
5'8"
—
weight
153 lb
—
reach
69"
33
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Switch
4.7
strikes landed / min
5.7
46%
striking accuracy
40%
4.0
strikes absorbed / min
4.3
52%
striking defence
49%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
0.9
27%
takedown accuracy
44%
58%
takedown defence
58%
0.7
submissions / 15 min
1.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Yair Rodríguez VALUE
“i think Yair Rodríguez wins this fight”
We Want Picks picks Yair Rodríguez VALUE
“i think Yair Rodríguez wins this fight”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Yair Rodríguez
“i would be fairly surprised if this fight did not end up on the optimal lineup um both guys have passed the victory um both guys have paths to score very well here”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Yair Rodríguez
“i would be fairly surprised if this fight did not end up on the optimal lineup um both guys have passed the victory um both guys have paths to score very well here”
CO
Covers picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“i like Brian Ortega in this one i like him on the money line at minus 165”
$1.61
Covers picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“i like Brian Ortega in this one i like him on the money line at minus 165”
$1.61
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Yair Rodríguez
“i'm gonna go with Brian Ortega”
MMA EXPERTS picks Yair Rodríguez
“i'm gonna go with Brian Ortega”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“i'm gonna go with Brian Ortega okay stick with stick with the the jiu jitSu Mudaerji hey”
MMA EXPERTS picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“i'm gonna go with Brian Ortega okay stick with stick with the the jiu jitSu Mudaerji hey”
KU
Kunath picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“my preferred side the main event is brian ortega”
Kunath picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“my preferred side the main event is brian ortega”
HB
Half The Battle picks Yair Rodríguez VALUE
“i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat Brian Ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog but again you know like like i've been saying you know people that took the ortega by subprop i understand why i understand why like ortega will literally be losing these fights and then just pull something off and you can't call it flukes because he's done it how many [ __ ] times like like if it was a one-time thing then okay then you can call it a fluke but when he did it to diego brandow he did it to clay guido he did it to him to moycano that's three fights in a row that he did it almost did it to volkanovsky like the guys just got a knack for that comeback and it's one thing when you're a lower ranked fighter that's got a knack for the comeback but when you're doing it to the top guys on planet earth and you're ranked number two in the world you're given the champion volkanovsky issues like now he wasn't giving him issues throughout the fight just in that one moment but that one moment is all it takes for a guy like ortega to finish a fight so that's why yeah here's got to be [ __ ] super careful here and props to volkanovsky for that that submission defense i mean his composure um i was rolling with a brown belt earlier and he was basically telling me no hooks no choke and i felt that because like when uh when ortega had that guillotine on volkanovsky the first thing volkanovsky was doing it seemed to me like he was trying to get his uh his hips out he's trying to get his feet out because ortega had a mount and but he had his feet kind of crossed like Jessica Penne used to do when bj pennies to get on top of guys it'd kind of be like uh a guard from the mount like you cross your legs when you're on top of the guy in mount and the first thing volkonovsky did was try to get his feet out of there and then he started fighting the hands which was interesting um and he was flat on his back like he wasn't panicking like volkanovsky's a g man like to survive something like that and then right after that after you've already used up a lot of energy to escape that guillotine a triangle choke like came right after it and what's crazy about ortega is ortega was getting pounded on and he was still able to lock in a triangle now props to volkanovsky for surviving can someone else survive i'm not i'm not so sure so yeah here's gotta really pick his weapons in this fight man like in all areas like you can have this guy hurt dead to rights and he can still submit you so but i think yair is capable of being disciplined it's just you know you can't get carried away like you did against jeremy stevens um you know you can't throw you know 360 spin kicks uh multiple times in the first round like you did against max holloway but i think he knows that you if you guys heard his interview um he said i just need to keep it basic here and i think he's capable of doing that so hopefully he does it because i'm gonna most likely take the underdog shot on uh yeah year here and let's see what happens um you know a lot of people have been seeing people say that oh yeah ortega needs to focus on his wrestling and this and that and acting as if ortega doesn't know you know takedowns and this and that i think that's [ __ ] i think if you actually hear ortega talk about his philosophy he says that attempting takedowns is very tiring and it is anyone that's grappled before knows that i mean unless you're you know a long time wrestler even then it's tiring but those guys just are built different but when you're a EVENT_DETAILS guy i mean he said that basically he likes the bang and create that opening whether it's you shooting on him you know and him snatching the neck or whatever the case may be so ortega's as opportunistic as it gets and he might go for a takedown or two maybe and if he gets one passes to mount the fight could be over shortly after he takes the back could be over right away but i don't think his wrestling obviously is as good as his as his EVENT_DETAILS but the reason is not because he's not out here drilling his takedowns it's because his approach like like he said in that interview man he likes the bang going for takedowns is very tiring he doesn't want to be you know out here huffing and puffing because he's already susceptible to getting hit on the feet you guys see how his defense is he eats a lot of shots doesn't have the best reactions either when he gets hit for some reason hasn't been wobbled or dropped yet which is crazy but kind of reminds me like if you guys watch Herbert Burns early in his career before he started knocking people out like he was kind of a defensive liability on the feet too like that was one of the things that was my criticism for burns back in the day not anymore because he's definitely tightening some things up but back in the day he just used to get pieced up standing and would just blast double someone or they shoot on him or whatever the case may be he's always had heavy hands too but his defense has gotten a bit better and not you know it's obviously you know we're not talking uh volkanovsky level defense or anything like that but uh compared to what it was it's gotten better so let's see what ortega can do here but i'm gonna go with the air keep it basic chop them down with calf kicks throw straight punches don't take any stupid unnecessary risks and possibly come out here and win this decision so we'll see it's going to be sketchy there's going to be some sweats and there's always the chance that he can be winning the fight and one mistake is all it takes for ortega to finish but i'm gonna go yeah yeah be a decision”
$2.55
Half The Battle picks Yair Rodríguez VALUE
“i'm gonna go yay rodriguez to defeat Brian Ortega and get the upset and cash as an underdog but again you know like like i've been saying you know people that took the ortega by subprop i understand why i understand why like ortega will literally be losing these fights and then just pull something off and you can't call it flukes because he's done it how many [ __ ] times like like if it was a one-time thing then okay then you can call it a fluke but when he did it to diego brandow he did it to clay guido he did it to him to moycano that's three fights in a row that he did it almost did it to volkanovsky like the guys just got a knack for that comeback and it's one thing when you're a lower ranked fighter that's got a knack for the comeback but when you're doing it to the top guys on planet earth and you're ranked number two in the world you're given the champion volkanovsky issues like now he wasn't giving him issues throughout the fight just in that one moment but that one moment is all it takes for a guy like ortega to finish a fight so that's why yeah here's got to be [ __ ] super careful here and props to volkanovsky for that that submission defense i mean his composure um i was rolling with a brown belt earlier and he was basically telling me no hooks no choke and i felt that because like when uh when ortega had that guillotine on volkanovsky the first thing volkanovsky was doing it seemed to me like he was trying to get his uh his hips out he's trying to get his feet out because ortega had a mount and but he had his feet kind of crossed like Jessica Penne used to do when bj pennies to get on top of guys it'd kind of be like uh a guard from the mount like you cross your legs when you're on top of the guy in mount and the first thing volkonovsky did was try to get his feet out of there and then he started fighting the hands which was interesting um and he was flat on his back like he wasn't panicking like volkanovsky's a g man like to survive something like that and then right after that after you've already used up a lot of energy to escape that guillotine a triangle choke like came right after it and what's crazy about ortega is ortega was getting pounded on and he was still able to lock in a triangle now props to volkanovsky for surviving can someone else survive i'm not i'm not so sure so yeah here's gotta really pick his weapons in this fight man like in all areas like you can have this guy hurt dead to rights and he can still submit you so but i think yair is capable of being disciplined it's just you know you can't get carried away like you did against jeremy stevens um you know you can't throw you know 360 spin kicks uh multiple times in the first round like you did against max holloway but i think he knows that you if you guys heard his interview um he said i just need to keep it basic here and i think he's capable of doing that so hopefully he does it because i'm gonna most likely take the underdog shot on uh yeah year here and let's see what happens um you know a lot of people have been seeing people say that oh yeah ortega needs to focus on his wrestling and this and that and acting as if ortega doesn't know you know takedowns and this and that i think that's [ __ ] i think if you actually hear ortega talk about his philosophy he says that attempting takedowns is very tiring and it is anyone that's grappled before knows that i mean unless you're you know a long time wrestler even then it's tiring but those guys just are built different but when you're a EVENT_DETAILS guy i mean he said that basically he likes the bang and create that opening whether it's you shooting on him you know and him snatching the neck or whatever the case may be so ortega's as opportunistic as it gets and he might go for a takedown or two maybe and if he gets one passes to mount the fight could be over shortly after he takes the back could be over right away but i don't think his wrestling obviously is as good as his as his EVENT_DETAILS but the reason is not because he's not out here drilling his takedowns it's because his approach like like he said in that interview man he likes the bang going for takedowns is very tiring he doesn't want to be you know out here huffing and puffing because he's already susceptible to getting hit on the feet you guys see how his defense is he eats a lot of shots doesn't have the best reactions either when he gets hit for some reason hasn't been wobbled or dropped yet which is crazy but kind of reminds me like if you guys watch Herbert Burns early in his career before he started knocking people out like he was kind of a defensive liability on the feet too like that was one of the things that was my criticism for burns back in the day not anymore because he's definitely tightening some things up but back in the day he just used to get pieced up standing and would just blast double someone or they shoot on him or whatever the case may be he's always had heavy hands too but his defense has gotten a bit better and not you know it's obviously you know we're not talking uh volkanovsky level defense or anything like that but uh compared to what it was it's gotten better so let's see what ortega can do here but i'm gonna go with the air keep it basic chop them down with calf kicks throw straight punches don't take any stupid unnecessary risks and possibly come out here and win this decision so we'll see it's going to be sketchy there's going to be some sweats and there's always the chance that he can be winning the fight and one mistake is all it takes for ortega to finish but i'm gonna go yeah yeah be a decision”
$2.55
WP
We Want Picks picks Brian Ortega
“my initial lock of the week was gonna be yair I think yair beats Brian Ortega but I can't do that to my guy I'm a big Brian Ortega guy he is super super dangerous if he wins I would be surprised I just think yair can get it done the Striking he is not going to be my lock of the weekend”
We Want Picks picks Brian Ortega
“my initial lock of the week was gonna be yair I think yair beats Brian Ortega but I can't do that to my guy I'm a big Brian Ortega guy he is super super dangerous if he wins I would be surprised I just think yair can get it done the Striking he is not going to be my lock of the weekend”
CL
Clenbat picks Yair Rodríguez VALUE
“i am actually picking out Yair Rodríguez”
Clenbat picks Yair Rodríguez VALUE
“i am actually picking out Yair Rodríguez”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Brian Ortega
“i'm taking Brian Ortega he's gonna get that sub”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Brian Ortega
“i'm taking Brian Ortega he's gonna get that sub”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“i am edging Brian Ortega to get the job done here”
Walk The Line MMA picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“i am edging Brian Ortega to get the job done here”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Rodríguez16-5
W
Pitbull
Apr '25
L
Ortega
Feb '24
L
Volkanovski
Jul '23
W
Emmett
Feb '23
W
Ortega
Jul '22
Ortega16-5
L
Sterling
Aug '25
L
Lopes
Sep '24
W
Rodríguez
Feb '24
L
Rodríguez
Jul '22
L
Volkanovski
Sep '21