MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodríguez
Choose a fight to analyse
YR BO Rodríguez vs OrtegaMain Card · Featherweight AL MW Lemos vs WatersonMain Card · Women'S Strawweight LJ MS Jingliang vs SalikhovMain Card · Welterweight MS SM Schnell vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight SB CJ Burgos vs JourdainMain Card · Featherweight LM MT Murphy vs TateMain Card · Women'S Flyweight PS DL Soriano vs LungiambulaPreliminary Card · Middleweight RS JS Simón vs ShorePreliminary Card · Bantamweight BA HB Algeo vs BurnsPreliminary Card · Featherweight DJ DJ Jacoby vs JungPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight DS DG Stoltzfus vs GrantPreliminary Card · Middleweight ED JP Ducote vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Algeo v Burns Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Algeo 4
2 Burns
MUDW pick Algeo
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Algeo 18-9 VS 11-6 Burns
6'0" height 5'9"
146 lb weight 146 lb
73" reach 74"
37 age 38
Switch stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 1.9
51% striking accuracy 36%
4.4 strikes absorbed / min 5.2
47% striking defence 41%
1.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
50% takedown accuracy 34%
55% takedown defence 66%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 1.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Bill Algeo “we'll ride with Bill Algeo as the official pick” $1.50
WP We Want Picks picks Bill Algeo “i think that's enough to get the win”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Bill Algeo VALUE “i think Bill Algeo if he is able to survive that first round which i do think he does i think he takes over in that second or third potentially even finishes”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Bill Algeo VALUE “i'm gonna ride Bill Algeo algio here” $1.48
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Bill Algeo “i'm gonna side with Bill Algeo to keep it kickboxing”
AM Artem MMA picks Herbert Burns VALUE “give me a decision um or even a late like second or third round finish”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Herbert Burns VALUE “i'll take bill algiero to win the fight” $1.59
WP We Want Picks picks Bill Algeo VALUE “algio's the pick” $1.62
Recent form last five, most recent first
Algeo18-9
L Doo-ho KO/TKO · R2 Jul '24
L Nelson KO/TKO · R1 Mar '24
W Hernandez Decision · R3 Oct '23
W Brown Submission · R2 Apr '23
L Fili Decision · R3 Sep '22
Burns11-6
L Jenkins KO/TKO · R3 Aug '24
L Arce KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
L Algeo KO/TKO · R2 Jul '22
L Pineda KO/TKO · R2 Aug '20
W Dunham Submission · R1 Jun '20