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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Pimblett v Vargas
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Pimblett 23-3
VS
12-5 Vargas
5'10"
height
5'8"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
73"
reach
71"
31
age
40
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
4.9
strikes landed / min
3.6
53%
striking accuracy
53%
3.8
strikes absorbed / min
1.8
40%
striking defence
57%
0.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.4
25%
takedown accuracy
25%
52%
takedown defence
30%
2.1
submissions / 15 min
0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
AS
AJ Let's Talk Sports picks Paddy Pimblett
“paddy the baddie Paddy Pimblett Paddy Pimblett is gonna win the fort versus Kazula Vargas lightweight fight minus 550 put all your money and chips on Paddy Pimblett”
$1.18
AJ Let's Talk Sports picks Paddy Pimblett
“paddy the baddie Paddy Pimblett Paddy Pimblett is gonna win the fort versus Kazula Vargas lightweight fight minus 550 put all your money and chips on Paddy Pimblett”
$1.18
WP
We Want Picks picks Kazula Vargas VALUE
“i like Kazula Vargas in this fight”
We Want Picks picks Kazula Vargas VALUE
“i like Kazula Vargas in this fight”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“i do like Paddy Pimblett but as far as Kazula Vargas i will not be touching him much if any at all”
$95.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“i do like Paddy Pimblett but as far as Kazula Vargas i will not be touching him much if any at all”
$95.00
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“Paddy Pimblett hot prospect um very excited to see”
Walk The Line MMA picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“Paddy Pimblett hot prospect um very excited to see”
WP
We Want Picks picks Kazula Vargas VALUE
“i'm going to say rodrigo Kazula Vargas”
We Want Picks picks Kazula Vargas VALUE
“i'm going to say rodrigo Kazula Vargas”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Pimblett23-3
L
Gaethje
Jan '26
W
Chandler
Apr '25
W
Green
Jul '24
W
Ferguson
Dec '23
W
Gordon
Dec '22
Vargas12-5
L
Pimblett
Mar '22
W
Zhu
Apr '21
L
Weaver
Feb '20
L
Coelho
Aug '19