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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Pavlovich v Abdurakhimov Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Pavlovich 5
1 Abdurakhimov
MUKWD pick Pavlovich
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pavlovich 20-3 VS 20-8 Abdurakhimov
6'3" height 6'3"
255 lb weight 263 lb
84" reach 76"
34 age 44
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.1 strikes landed / min 2.4
44% striking accuracy 44%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 3.0
66% striking defence 55%
1.8 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
25% takedown accuracy 23%
64% takedown defence 45%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP We Want Picks picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “i think you got to go pavlovic here”
KU Kunath picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “i think Sergei Pavlovich is gonna knock him out”
WP We Want Picks picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “so i like Sergei Pavlovich”
DR Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “i'm going Sergei Pavlovich stoppage as well i reckon”
AM Artem MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich “Ilia Topuria he's part of another parlay with a nathaniel wood elite fourier Sergei Pavlovich and patty pimplet”
AM Artem MMA picks Shamil Abdurakhimov “sorry gabriel health which is obviously my pick”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “my prediction is going to be sergey pavlovich to completely dust chamil abdur akimov” $1.33
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “i think he's going to knock out a slower and aging abdurahim off here” $1.36
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pavlovich20-3
W Teixeira KO/TKO · R1 May '26
W Cortes-Acosta Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Rozenstruik Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Volkov Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Aspinall KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
Abdurakhimov20-8
L Almeida KO/TKO · R2 Jan '23
L Pavlovich KO/TKO · R1 Mar '22
L Daukaus KO/TKO · R2 Sep '21
L Blaydes KO/TKO · R2 Sep '19
W Tybura KO/TKO · R2 Apr '19