Choose a fight to analyse
TA
AV
Aspinall vs VolkovMain Card · Heavyweight
AA
DH
Allen vs HookerMain Card · Featherweight
PP
KV
Pimblett vs VargasMain Card · Lightweight
GN
TS
Nelson vs SatoMain Card · Welterweight
MM
LC
McCann vs CarolinaMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
IT
JH
Topuria vs HerbertMain Card · Lightweight
MA
MG
Amirkhani vs GrundyPreliminary Card · Featherweight
SP
SA
Pavlovich vs AbdurakhimovPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
PC
NK
Craig vs KrylovPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
JS
TV
Shore vs ValievPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
ER
CM
Reed vs McKennaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
CD
Mokaev vs DurdenPreliminary Card · Flyweight
AV
Aspinall vs VolkovMain Card · Heavyweight
AA
DH
Allen vs HookerMain Card · Featherweight
PP
KV
Pimblett vs VargasMain Card · Lightweight
GN
TS
Nelson vs SatoMain Card · Welterweight
MM
LC
McCann vs CarolinaMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
IT
JH
Topuria vs HerbertMain Card · Lightweight
MA
MG
Amirkhani vs GrundyPreliminary Card · Featherweight
SP
SA
Pavlovich vs AbdurakhimovPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
PC
NK
Craig vs KrylovPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
JS
TV
Shore vs ValievPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
ER
CM
Reed vs McKennaPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
CD
Mokaev vs DurdenPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Nelson v Sato
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Nelson 19-5-1
VS
16-7 Sato
5'11"
height
—
170 lb
weight
—
72"
reach
—
37
age
36
Switch
stance
Southpaw
1.8
strikes landed / min
2.2
61%
striking accuracy
41%
3.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.7
49%
striking defence
44%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.8
59%
takedown accuracy
37%
66%
takedown defence
60%
1.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
AS
AJ Let's Talk Sports picks Gunnar Nelson
“then we're going into what toy division minus 510 gonna Gunnar Nelson over Takashi Sato”
$1.20
AJ Let's Talk Sports picks Gunnar Nelson
“then we're going into what toy division minus 510 gonna Gunnar Nelson over Takashi Sato”
$1.20
WP
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“i think gunnar nelson to win”
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“i think gunnar nelson to win”
WP
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“so yeah so Gunnar Nelson's both our pick we think it's he's gonna be the uh very fortunate benefactor of a favorable matchup”
$1.11
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“so yeah so Gunnar Nelson's both our pick we think it's he's gonna be the uh very fortunate benefactor of a favorable matchup”
$1.11
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Takashi Sato VALUE
“i got to go with the huge underdog Takashi Sato”
MMA EXPERTS picks Takashi Sato VALUE
“i got to go with the huge underdog Takashi Sato”
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“Gunnar Nelson ... sub right”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“Gunnar Nelson ... sub right”
WP
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“i think Gunnar Nelson can get the takedown can work from there can get it done”
We Want Picks picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“i think Gunnar Nelson can get the takedown can work from there can get it done”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“very excited to see Gunnar Nelson throwing down again he took a little bit of a break here it's been some years since he's been in the octagon and and if you guys forgot about gunny um you know you're gonna be reminded this upcoming weekend gunner is an excellent fighter and looks to be in phenomenal shape going into his his bout against Takashi Sato”
Walk The Line MMA picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“very excited to see Gunnar Nelson throwing down again he took a little bit of a break here it's been some years since he's been in the octagon and and if you guys forgot about gunny um you know you're gonna be reminded this upcoming weekend gunner is an excellent fighter and looks to be in phenomenal shape going into his his bout against Takashi Sato”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Takashi Sato VALUE
“i'm gonna say Takashi Sato keeps the fight standing and is able to beat gunner nelson purely for those reasons”
$3.50
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Takashi Sato VALUE
“i'm gonna say Takashi Sato keeps the fight standing and is able to beat gunner nelson purely for those reasons”
$3.50
TF
The ICE Files picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“pick number two is Gunnar Nelson he's fighting Takashi Sato you're gonna want to take Gunnar Nelson on this one... i think he's just gonna get dominated everywhere by Gunnar Nelson probably gonna get submitted”
The ICE Files picks Gunnar Nelson VALUE
“pick number two is Gunnar Nelson he's fighting Takashi Sato you're gonna want to take Gunnar Nelson on this one... i think he's just gonna get dominated everywhere by Gunnar Nelson probably gonna get submitted”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Takashi Sato VALUE
“i'm picking Takashi Sato he's been more active he has knockout power”
$4.04
MMA EXPERTS picks Takashi Sato VALUE
“i'm picking Takashi Sato he's been more active he has knockout power”
$4.04
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Nelson19-5-1
L
Holland
Mar '25
W
Barberena
Mar '23
W
Sato
Mar '22
L
Burns
Sep '19
L
Edwards
Mar '19
Sato16-7
L
Gorimbo
May '23
L
Battle
Aug '22
L
Nelson
Mar '22
L
Baeza
Nov '20
W
Witt
Jun '20