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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Topuria v Herbert
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Topuria 17-0
VS
13-6-1 Herbert
5'7"
height
6'1"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
69"
reach
77"
29
age
38
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.5
strikes landed / min
3.2
54%
striking accuracy
42%
2.3
strikes absorbed / min
3.4
61%
striking defence
52%
2.3
takedowns / 15 min
0.5
57%
takedown accuracy
23%
84%
takedown defence
59%
1.3
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i think Ilia Topuria can take down Jai Herbert over and over again”
We Want Picks picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i think Ilia Topuria can take down Jai Herbert over and over again”
KU
Kunath picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i've got Ilia Topuria”
Kunath picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i've got Ilia Topuria”
HB
Half The Battle picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“give me Ilia Topuriad supporter to win this fight”
$1.80
Half The Battle picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“give me Ilia Topuriad supporter to win this fight”
$1.80
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i really like Ilia Topuria going to have a ton of them and he has most definitely a core play for me”
$91.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i really like Ilia Topuria going to have a ton of them and he has most definitely a core play for me”
$91.00
WP
We Want Picks picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“jacob and i both taking Ilia Topuria here he is just incredibly talented honestly uh he has decent enough striking to probably not get knocked out and very good wrestling to get this to the ground and do whatever the hell he wants to do there 9 300 it's probably worth it”
$1.01
We Want Picks picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“jacob and i both taking Ilia Topuria here he is just incredibly talented honestly uh he has decent enough striking to probably not get knocked out and very good wrestling to get this to the ground and do whatever the hell he wants to do there 9 300 it's probably worth it”
$1.01
DR
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i'm going to go with Jai Herbert”
Dan Hardy | Full Reptile picks Jai Herbert VALUE
“i'm going to go with Jai Herbert”
WP
We Want Picks picks Ilia Topuria
“i'm looking for ilya tapporia to get the takedowns get it done i love Ilia Topuria”
We Want Picks picks Ilia Topuria
“i'm looking for ilya tapporia to get the takedowns get it done i love Ilia Topuria”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i'm definitely taking ilya to porya to win the fight here”
$1.25
Walk The Line MMA picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“i'm definitely taking ilya to porya to win the fight here”
$1.25
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Ilia Topuria
“yeah that's gonna be my first prediction i'm gonna have to side with aaliyah tapira purely because if he takes the fight to the mat that's where it's uh it's a wrap”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Ilia Topuria
“yeah that's gonna be my first prediction i'm gonna have to side with aaliyah tapira purely because if he takes the fight to the mat that's where it's uh it's a wrap”
TF
The ICE Files picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“my last ice pick for this card is gonna be my boy Ilia Topuria the georgian this guy is a savage absolute savage... Ilia Topuria should knock him out”
The ICE Files picks Ilia Topuria VALUE
“my last ice pick for this card is gonna be my boy Ilia Topuria the georgian this guy is a savage absolute savage... Ilia Topuria should knock him out”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Topuria17-0
L
Gaethje
Jun '26
W
Oliveira
Jun '25
W
Holloway
Oct '24
W
Volkanovski
Feb '24
W
Emmett
Jun '23
Herbert13-6-1
W
Nallo
Apr '26
L
Padilla
Mar '25
W
Bedoya
Aug '24
L
Ziam
Jul '23
W
Nelson
Jul '22