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Live Dogs MMA
UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg · breakdown

🟣 UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg Quick Picks!

LM Live Dogs MMA64% hit
15 months ago 8W–3L · +0.2u
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
MM MarQuel Mederos v Austin Hubbard MONEYLINE WON
“I think MarQuel Mederos will win younger more athletic more dangerous he has taken a little bit of time off but I don't think it's going to be too much of a problem Austin Hubbard is a hard guy to put away so it may go late or it may go to decision but I will take Maderos”
Line since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.62 close$1.65
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
JE Jamall Emmers v Gabriel Miranda MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going to take Jamall Emmers but keep in mind Jamall Emmers does not have a great fight IQ he loses fight sometimes because he makes mistakes out there he can get submitted in this fight if he does not watch his ass but he's way more dangerous think he's a little bit bigger uh I think he can get a finish here I will take Jamall Emmers”
Line since pick CLV +3%
◆ entry$1.33 close$1.29
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
VP Vinc Pichel v Rafa García MONEYLINE LOST
“I am going to tentatively take Vinc Pichel I think this is a 50-50 fight but you know Vince Melle is a plus 300 and something Underdog you're a plus 300 and something Underdog in a fight that that you're live in so you know as a predictor you know as somebody's making predictions for you I do feel kind of tentative about picking Vinc Pichel who's 42 years old who has slown down um in a fight like this but as somebody who bets money I think he's worth a Sprinkle I think he's worth a little bit of a little bit of juice here because he's a way bigger favorite than he should be for a guy in Rafa García who has kind of been looking like he's on the decline and Vinc Pichel is durable he's hard to put away at at worst he could get submitted um or you know make this a close fight and and the decision not go his way because they're in Mexico so this is a very dicey pick but I do see Vinc Pichel being able to keep up with the pace of Garcia use his vet Savvy and and steal a couple rounds so I am tentatively going to take Vinc Pichel”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$4.85 close$4.85
entry: Wind Creek (Betfred PA) · best in any region at publish
LG Loopy Godinez v Julia Polastri MONEYLINE WON
“Loopy Godinez is going to be my pick here but just like Jamall Emmers she is not very bright in that cage she's had a lot of you know bad decision- making that has caused her to lose fights that she should have arguably won we know she's talented we know she that she may not be the best Striker when it comes to Julia Polastri but Julia Polastri that's all she does she's an okay Striker decent Jiu-Jitsu but Loopy Godinez L Loopy Godinez better everywhere so I I think as long as she keeps that that mind in check this is her fight I think she is the better she's the aide here and I will take lupy godz”
Line since pick
no market data captured for this fight
CR Christian Rodriguez v Melquizael Costa MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm gonna go back to Christian Rodriguez I have picked against Cod a couple times and he's burned me but uh I think he is strong enough even though you know he's going to be a little bit smaller out there to keep the fight where he wants it I think he's slightly more dangerous with the hands I did pick against Rodriguez in the Julia Polastri fight and I chose and I also hit the submission prop Melquizael Costa can definitely get a submission here so you know I would play either Costa by submission or I would do Rodriguez by a late TKO or like a third round TKO or maybe you know he'll get the decision uh you know he's Mexican and he's American but you know the name you know he's he's in Mexico they'll probably favor him it seems like they do have a little bias judging there from what I've seen a lot of favorites win there too so it's a tough one but as of right now I'm going to go with Rodriguez”
Line since pick CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.67 close$1.64
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
AG Ateba Gautier v José Daniel Medina MONEYLINE WON
“Ateba Gautier versus José Daniel Medina I think that gutier is is uh is definitely going to run through this guy now look I I almost picked Vera in the musasa fight that we saw a week or two ago and I didn't do it because I kind of talked myself out of it like I was talking about earlier this could be a spot where gutier gasses and gets submitted he's done it he's he's definitely gassed and shown to quit before but this guy is better than musasa this guy has more power uh has a little bit more experience um and also you know he already went up against a Jiu-Jitsu whiz on the contender series and he passed the tests and he stuffed the takedowns I think that because of that it would be stupid not to pick him here it's not the same but it's it could be the same outcome but it's it's not near as likely I will take uh atiba gutier”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.25 close$1.25
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
ÉC Édgar Cháirez v C.J. Vergara MONEYLINE WON
“I'm gonna take Édgar Cháirez here Ronaldo Rodríguez versus Kevin Borjas Kevin Borjas was another guy I looked at for uh for one of my live dogs for this card because I think that boros is a little underrated you know he he's had some some tough losses he's he's fought some really tough competition in there and Ronaldo Rodríguez has struggled in some of the fights that he's been in uh he arguably lost to Ode Osborne I don't think he did but it was close um but I think that I just don't think boros is is going to have enough of a power threat to stop Rodriguez who will keep coming forward who will put the pressure who will have the hometown advantage and so I will tentatively take Ronaldo Rodríguez and another favorite then we have David Martínez I'll make this one quick David Martínez should win uh he's got power for striking he's a great Striker he's a good Prospect I just don't see him losing here um yeah it's just that that's pretty simple y'all uh he's a good he's a good piece to Parlay for sure Raul Rosas Jr. versus Vince Morales Vince Morales is GNA be game but he's not going to be game enough I do believe eventually that submission will come I understand that Raul roses Jun is a little overhyped and they're really pushing him and they've given him some favorable favorable matchups and they may be doing that here but you have to also understand that Raul Rosas Jr. is also improving he's constantly improving I'm seeing the improvements so I think that at this time he is good enough to beat Vince Morales so I will take him”
Line since pick CLV +1%
◆ entry$1.40 close$1.39
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
RR Ronaldo Rodríguez v Kevin Borjas MONEYLINE LOST
“I will tentatively take Ronaldo Rodríguez”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.70 close$1.71
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
DM David Martínez v Saimon Oliveira MONEYLINE WON
“David Martínez should win uh he's got power for striking he's a great Striker he's a good Prospect I just don't see him losing here um yeah it's just that that's pretty simple y'all uh he's a good he's a good piece to Parlay for sure”
Line since pick CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.28 close$1.26
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
RJ Raul Rosas Jr. v Vince Morales MONEYLINE WON
“I will take him Kevin Borjas vers Joe Piper I'm going to take Joe Piper because I think he's bigger I think he's uh more dangerous a little bit more of a a threat at this time Kelvin his inconsistencies have really plagued him and plagued me cuz I really like him and I I thought Tyron Woodley he took uh Israel out of Sonia to the brink so he has the potential to be great but I think that that has left him at this time I really think Joe pyer is going to win here I think he's bigger I think he hits harder I think he has more upside and I don't really like Kelvin at 185 I really like Kelvin at 170 but it doesn't look like we're going to get that Kelvin so outside of pyer maybe gassing and Kelvin getting him late I do think pyer is a solid pick here and a Sol solid parlay play uh and I will be placing my bets on Joe pyer 100%”
Line since pick CLV +5%
◆ entry$1.28 close$1.22
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
MT Manuel Torres v Drew Dober MONEYLINE WON
“I feel like Manuel Torres is going to win Drew Dober is 36 years old I think his chin has finally been cracked I do think he has slipped off a bit and he's never really been a world beater to begin with you know back in the day Drew Dober was one of my favorite Fighters but one of the things I noticed about Drew Dober is he was always getting submitted he would come in and look okay or look really good and then bam instantly in locked into submission and that's always been his weakness and Manuel Torres has stepped up that part of his game I think he contend he can contend in the Striking and if it goes to the ground which at some point they will scramble and I do believe it will go there I do think that Manuel Torres is live to get a submission so I would bet this fight either Torres submission or Drew Dober by knockout but I think it's more likely at this stage of the game that we're going to see Torres get the get the nod here um or get the submission um I just like his range I like his size I think his striking his is pretty good he's got a little bit of power of his own and Drew Dober is just going to be you know aggressive in your face Landing those big shots but I don't think Drew Dober will will have the best cardio compared to Torres either so it's just not in his favor y'all so unfortunately I I really could not take him seriously as a dog in this spot and am going to take Manuel Torres”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$2.02 close$2.05
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish