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UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · breakdown

UFC 312 RANT and Unbiased Predictions

LM Leftlane MMA67% hit
17 months ago 6W–4L · -0.6u 10/11 graded
Picks, timestamped entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
AJ Anshul Jubli v Quillan Salkilld MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm picking the dude who's not Indian there you go breakdown done um that'll will move on there no but I don't know quinland Sak looked good on conten year as and anal Jubilee is Indian um by the way if you haven't seen already bottom in that bottom section 2024 picks you can see there 66% so far this year at 68% and on my lock predictions which is 70% confidence or more I am at three out of three so 100% obviously I started that on the SE card so we'll see what happens I've got some locks here this is one of them I'm very confident that the non-indian fighter beats the Indian fighter”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$6.20 close$6.20
entry: Ladbrokes AU · best in any region at publish
KJ Kevin Jousset v Jonathan Micallef MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm going to be picking Kevin Jousset and I'm going to be making him a lock Kevin Jousset's winning this [ __ ] I don't give a [ __ ] yeah just going to win by decision uh mikf beat one [ __ ] random black dude on Contender series he's mid um I don't know he's inexperienced I guess just set chains with a good team”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.43 close$1.45
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
KS Kody Steele v Rong Zhu MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm going to be picking Kody Steele steel I don't know wrong juo's [ __ ] mid he got released from the UFC came back and then lost again so yeah I'm not picking him to win uh let's move on Kody Steele still I don't know got a body shot TKO and Contender series”
Line since pick
no market data captured for this fight
AT Aleksandre Topuria v Colby Thicknesse MONEYLINE WON
“so yeah I'm going to be picking top Toro to win I'm going to just make him a lock just for the sake of it just off Vibes you know cuz I don't want to just stat pad the locks thing and just make it all like minus 500 even though he is a big favorite he shouldn't be um but I don't know top Toro he's probably pretty good”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.31 close$1.31
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
ZW Zhang Weili v Tatiana Suarez MONEYLINE WON
“no one Tong is going to [ __ ] beat Bruna Brasil Brasil cuz Zhang Weiliang Cong Cong is the less attractive woman so that's a gold gold standard to picking women's MMA fights uh it's tried and true I should have picked it in one Tong's fight against Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos because Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos looks like vandalay Silva's son um or looks like she would be the son of vay Sila um so yeah I should have picked her to win cuz she looks more lesbian I assume Zhang Weiliang Cong Tong is straight I don't know she's in China Chinese women allowed to be lesbian I'm not sure but uh Zhang Weiliang Cong Tong Zhang Weiliang Cong Cong ching chong bing bong is going to [ __ ] win”
Line since pick
no market data captured for this fight
VB Viacheslav Borshchev v Tom Nolan MONEYLINE LOST
“I'm going to be picking Viacheslav Viacheslav Borshchevshchev this is a fun fight it should end up in the Finish now let me just say this the card is straight ass like terrible and not good not the good kind of as the card is actual [ __ ] but it will be fun like the matchups are not boring but no one actually cares if the matchups are not going to be boring because in hindsight we all probably are going to go oh this card was cool everyone hating on it was dumb but still it's a [ __ ] pay-per-view card with Justin Justin Tafa t for as the feature fight um but anyway fights like this should make it fun Tom Nolan Nolan vicious love Viacheslav Borshchev that being said though Tom Nolan Nolan did go to a [ __ ] decision with Alex Reyes in his last fight and looked mid before that so I'm not picking him to win”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.91 close$1.91
entry: Caesars · best in any region at publish
GS Gabriel Santos v Jack Jenkins MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going to be picking Gabriel Santos I think Jack Jenkins Jenkins is kind of overrated he's good and he could show out here and look incredible I'm just adjusting myself standing up right now as I'm recording but um I do believe that uh he's not amazing like Jamal em is in my opinion clearly beat him two rounds to one arguably 3 and he got that decision I thought that was a [ __ ] robbery and I want to austalian Australian MMA fan but I am unbiased right I will call prospects from Australian mid unlike respect to him but bedtime MMA who will glaze anyone from Australia who can throw a [ __ ] leg kick and a hook to the body like I'm sorry bro bedtime I know you're Australian I know you know a lot of the guys around the regional scene probably better than I do but you can't just be glazing anyone for [ __ ] throwing a nice boxing combination and a c kick like Jack Jenkins Jack Jenkins Jenkins is cool I do think he's good he's not top 15 caliber in my opinion Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos could be judged by the fact that he almost beat Lon Murphy and I thought he beat Lon Murphy so that's what I'm looking at I'm looking at Jack Jenkins Jack Jenkins Jenkins who I thought lost to Jamal emers compared to Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos who I thought beat Lon Murphy I also think Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos's other fights are just better like Dricus du Plessison shanus and and [ __ ] Herbert burns are terrible and he took Dricus du Plessison sheenus to the cards who got finished in round one by sadf by submission mind you and then he also Herbert burns the third round and got taken down twice in that fight I'm not [ __ ] picking Jack Jenkins Jack Jenkins Jenkins if Gabriel Gabriel Santos Gabriel Santos mixes it up and grapples he should win he's actually talented Jack Jenkins Jenkins is good too he's like technically good but he's like he's all the technique but he doesn't really do much with it like he's got a cool leg kick like nice you beat up the [ __ ] punching bag Gilbert Herbert Burns sorry Herbert Burns is getting finished by literally anyone good in round two you took him to the third sorry buddy I know you can say oh Herber Burns was just pulling guard trying to not fight he does that against everyone every single time he has a half decent first round and then gets brutally killed in the second and quits he couldn't even Jack Jenkins Jenkins couldn't even make him quit in round two it took him till the third and that was just cuz he took too slow he was too slow getting up like how are you not brutally chinning this dude on the feet um anyway let's move on though to the next fight I'll pick Gabriel Santos by decision”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.44 close$1.44
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish
JM Jake Matthews v Francisco Prado MONEYLINE WON
“I feel more confident about borchev winning than Jake Matthews Matthews winning so if you want to put a dog money on pra by KO because Jake Matthews Matthews has shown to be a little bit chinny he does get caught seberger dropped him like twice in their fight he's been put away with strikes before um not that many times actually but like I don't know he does show to not have just a granite chin all the time looked a bit like against some fighters who aren't that good um and lider man skill that's a real thing I bring you this because liman skill is a real thing we know this pra could go up and just be way quicker and put on a great performance but I do have to remember it's not just the zel huba loss this dude literally did lose to Jamie Malak so that all that kind of sealed it where I'm like yeah I don't think I can pick this dude it's just cuz he's an underdog I think he's got a good chance would I bet on Jake Matthews Matthews no do not put Jake Matthews Jake Matthews Matthews in your parlays he'll probably burn them”
Line since pick CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.46 close$1.46
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
RB Rodolfo Bellato v Jimmy Crute MONEYLINE
“I'll pick Rodolfo Bellato by [ __ ] TKO I guess cuz he's not Jimmy Crute Crute anyway moving on to the next fight”
Line since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.71 now$1.75
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
TT Tallison Teixeira v Justin Tafa MONEYLINE WON
“I'm not going to be picking him I'm going to pick Tallison Teixeira toer I just make it a general rule when I don't think the shorter fighter is that skilled I will pick the guy with a N in reach advantage that's what I'm going to do if the guy if I'm picking like a fight between someone who's really good and I know they have the skills to actually get on the inside land shots fight with a good game plan I'll pick him right but if I'm picking a guy who I think is just a blob who swings big mey overhands and tries to catch you like if you're Parker Porter and you suck respect to Parker Porter he's the goat but like questionable defense um so I'm not going to be picking a dude whose entire game relies on fluke [ __ ] K with fighters who have no defense when this dude has a 9 in reach Advantage I do think the height Advantage is a I don't think he's 67 cuz tafa is listed at like 511 or something and it was probably like a 4 5 in reach height Advantage so I don't think he's 67 maybe he is he is a very tall fell we'll see what maybe it looks more pronounced in the cage but um tellison toera he's got pop you know he's quicker uh he's got range you can probably get him I could see him just get the tiing and just land a bunch of knees here apparently has a grappling base and even if he doesn't even if he accidentally lands on top of Justin Justin Tafa Justin Tafa he's going to win the round on control time so I'll pick talison to share out a win”
Line since pick CLV −2%
◆ entry$1.68 close$1.72
entry: PlayUp · best in any region at publish
DP Dricus du Plessis v Sean Strickland MONEYLINE WON
“I'm going to be picking Dricus du Plessisricus du Plessis to win the rematch I was trying to tempt myself to pick Sean Strickland and look like a genius um and anytime I'm like oh maybe I should pick this guy he's probably going to win and then I don't pick him he always [ __ ] wins so Sean Strickland Sean Strickland congrats on winning winning the belt back mate um and again the vibe I feel like the vibe is just kind of with Sean Strickland for a bit like Sean Strickland in Australia he's having his moments but again dricus you just can't [ __ ] like I think in my opinion you need to stop drias like you need to actually be able to get him out of there or you just need the tools to absolutely neutralize him for 25 minutes I think Sean Strickland's striking is better I think he has good takedown defense but I don't think he's like the level of like anti-g grapple the level of Striker where he can just absolutely shut down drias on the feet and stay at range and stay out of danger and avoid the blitz I just don't think he can do that and if they're going to stand for [ __ ] 25 minutes or stand for 20 minutes and grapple for five I'm going to back drus to steal rounds with grappling and I'm going to back into to steal rounds with like seemingly bigger shots that's what I'm going to say”
Line since pick CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.48 close$1.50
entry: BetAnything · best in any region at publish