UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · breakdown
Picks, timestamped
entry price locked at moment of pick · line tracked since · best price in any region · close = day before the event
BN
Bo Nickal
v Paul Craig
MONEYLINE
WON
Bo Nickal
v Paul Craig
MONEYLINE
WON
“he's a minus 1500 favorite right here and he is favored to win in round one”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.10
→
close$1.08
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish
PC
Paul Craig
v Bo Nickal
MONEYLINE
LOST
Paul Craig
v Bo Nickal
MONEYLINE
LOST
“if he wins it's going to be by finish it's going to be by submission the problem is he's just not doing it that often”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$9.75
→
close$9.75
entry: Ladbrokes AU · best in any region at publish
DO
David Onama
v Roberto Romero
MONEYLINE
WON
David Onama
v Roberto Romero
MONEYLINE
WON
“nickel as a good play onama as a pretty fringey play”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.11
→
close$1.11
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
JJ
Jon Jones
v Stipe Miocic
MONEYLINE
WON
Jon Jones
v Stipe Miocic
MONEYLINE
WON
“Jon Jones is one of the best plays on the Sleep he's got uh good win win odds minus 700”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.17
→
close$1.17
entry: Paddy Power · best in any region at publish
SM
Stipe Miocic
v Jon Jones
MONEYLINE
LOST
Stipe Miocic
v Jon Jones
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Stipe Miocic I I get it it's five rounds right if he wins it's going to it's going to have to score something at 6.7k but once again these guys that are just plus 500 plus 600 I I really do believe that it's it's a hard price to pay off”
Line since pick
CLV −2%
◆ entry$6.25
→
close$6.40
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
KS
Karine Silva
v Viviane Araújo
MONEYLINE
LOST
Karine Silva
v Viviane Araújo
MONEYLINE
LOST
“I'll put Karine Silva actually I'll put her as a fine play”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.38
→
close$1.38
entry: Coolbet · best in any region at publish
VA
Viviane Araújo
v Karine Silva
MONEYLINE
WON
Viviane Araújo
v Karine Silva
MONEYLINE
WON
“Viviane Araújo plus 240 I don't see much upside but I think it's one of these things where just because she's even semi-reasonable to win”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.50
→
close$3.50
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
MC
Michael Chandler
v Charles Oliveira
MONEYLINE
LOST
Michael Chandler
v Charles Oliveira
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Michael Chandler Michael Chandler Chandler 7.2k if Michael Chandler Michael Chandler Chandler wins here it's very hard for me to see him not making the optimal”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$3.25
→
close$3.25
entry: PlayUp · best in any region at publish
CO
Charles Oliveira
v Michael Chandler
MONEYLINE
WON
Charles Oliveira
v Michael Chandler
MONEYLINE
WON
“Charles Oliveira Oliveira he has a similar amount of upside as Michael Chandler Chandler”
Line since pick
CLV −1%
◆ entry$1.42
→
close$1.44
entry: Pinnacle · best in any region at publish
BH
Bassil Hafez
v Oban Elliott
MONEYLINE
LOST
Bassil Hafez
v Oban Elliott
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Bassil Hafez halfz negative line value isn't great but for mme we don't care all that much about that he's still plus 230 it's not bad and I think he has a big ceiling here”
Line since pick
CLV −3%
◆ entry$3.40
→
close$3.50
entry: BetMGM · best in any region at publish
EM
Eduarda Moura
v Veronica Hardy
MONEYLINE
WON
Eduarda Moura
v Veronica Hardy
MONEYLINE
WON
“Eduarda Moura edar Mora I think is one of the best underdogs on the Slate in DFS plus 120 to win”
Line since pick
CLV +6%
◆ entry$2.35
→
close$2.22
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish
VH
Veronica Hardy
v Eduarda Moura
MONEYLINE
LOST
Veronica Hardy
v Eduarda Moura
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Veronica Veronica Hardy Veronica Hardy negative line value off a itd line don't see any takedown upside in this matchup so it's it's probably a full fade”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.80
→
close$1.80
entry: Caesars · best in any region at publish
DJ
Damon Jackson
v Jim Miller
MONEYLINE
LOST
Damon Jackson
v Jim Miller
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Damon Jackson Damon Jackson Jackson he has very good takeown upside and Jiu-Jitsu control um and then Jim Miller Jim Miller Miller has I I believe early knockout upside here”
Line since pick
CLV +9%
◆ entry$1.77
→
close$1.62
entry: Fliff · best in any region at publish
JM
Jim Miller
v Damon Jackson
MONEYLINE
WON
Jim Miller
v Damon Jackson
MONEYLINE
WON
“Jim Miller Jim Miller Miller has I I believe early knockout upside here plus 200 itd at 7.6k yeah good enough for me”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.58
→
close$2.58
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
MM
Marcus McGhee
v Jonathan Martinez
MONEYLINE
WON
Marcus McGhee
v Jonathan Martinez
MONEYLINE
WON
“Eric Anders off F Tod line negative line value really it's it's it's an play on paper it just is but if you're trying to get unique I do think I'd be willing to to play the Eric Anders side”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.80
→
close$1.80
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish
JM
Jonathan Martinez
v Marcus McGhee
MONEYLINE
LOST
Jonathan Martinez
v Marcus McGhee
MONEYLINE
LOST
“Marcus McMickey Gallhee McMickey Gallhee he has knockout upside he has some takedown upside”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.22
→
close$2.23
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
MT
Marcin Tybura
v Jhonata Diniz
MONEYLINE
WON
Marcin Tybura
v Jhonata Diniz
MONEYLINE
WON
“Marcin Tybura Tybura uh versus Jhonata Diniz Jhonata Diniz so pretty binary matchup here on paper you got Jhonata Diniz who's the striker and you got marcine jur who's the well-rounded fighter aka the grappler”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.75
→
close$1.75
entry: Bovada · best in any region at publish
JD
Jhonata Diniz
v Marcin Tybura
MONEYLINE
LOST
Jhonata Diniz
v Marcin Tybura
MONEYLINE
LOST
“this fight looks extremely good Jhonata Diniz knockout upside tabira top time upside”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$2.28
→
close$2.28
entry: Betsson · best in any region at publish
OE
Oban Elliott
v Bassil Hafez
MONEYLINE
WON
—
Oban Elliott
v Bassil Hafez
MONEYLINE
WON
—
“Oban Elliott Oban Elliott Elliottt I think there's a key distinction here for small field single entry stuff I think Oban Elliott ellot it's a great play”
Line since pick
CLV +2%
◆ entry$1.43
→
close$1.40
entry: ESPN BET · best in any region at publish
MR
Maurício Ruffy
v James Llontop
MONEYLINE
WON
—
Maurício Ruffy
v James Llontop
MONEYLINE
WON
—
“I think this line is nonsense I don't get how how you you bet Maurício Maurício Ruffy at minus 900”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$1.12
→
close$1.12
entry: Caesars · best in any region at publish
JL
James Llontop
v Maurício Ruffy
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
James Llontop
v Maurício Ruffy
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“if I am to take a shot in any of these uh 6K Fighters it would probably be on top”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$7.50
→
close$7.50
entry: PlayUp · best in any region at publish
RR
Roberto Romero
v David Onama
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
Roberto Romero
v David Onama
MONEYLINE
LOST
—
“we'll leave out Roberto Romero and Craig”
Line since pick
CLV +0%
◆ entry$8.50
→
close$8.50
entry: BetOnline.ag · best in any region at publish