Choose a fight to analyse
FN
CG
Ngannou vs GaneMain Card · Heavyweight
DF
BM
Figueiredo vs MorenoMain Card · Flyweight
MP
AF
Pereira vs FialhoMain Card · Welterweight
SN
CS
Nurmagomedov vs StamannMain Card · Bantamweight
MM
TG
Morales vs GilesMain Card · Welterweight
VH
RB
Henry vs BarcelosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JM
PR
Maddalena vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Welterweight
TG
SO
Gravely vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
MF
GV
Frevola vs ValdézPreliminary Card · Lightweight
VD
SJ
Demopoulos vs JuárezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JJ
KH
Jasudavicius vs HansenEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
CG
Ngannou vs GaneMain Card · Heavyweight
DF
BM
Figueiredo vs MorenoMain Card · Flyweight
MP
AF
Pereira vs FialhoMain Card · Welterweight
SN
CS
Nurmagomedov vs StamannMain Card · Bantamweight
MM
TG
Morales vs GilesMain Card · Welterweight
VH
RB
Henry vs BarcelosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JM
PR
Maddalena vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Welterweight
TG
SO
Gravely vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
MF
GV
Frevola vs ValdézPreliminary Card · Lightweight
VD
SJ
Demopoulos vs JuárezEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
JJ
KH
Jasudavicius vs HansenEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Frevola v Valdéz
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Frevola 11-5-1
VS
10-3 Valdéz
5'9"
height
—
155 lb
weight
—
71"
reach
—
36
age
34
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.6
strikes landed / min
4.1
43%
striking accuracy
30%
3.5
strikes absorbed / min
7.2
68%
striking defence
48%
1.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.5
70%
takedown accuracy
44%
72%
takedown defence
36%
1.6
submissions / 15 min
0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
WP
We Want Picks picks Genaro Valdéz VALUE
“lock of the week he dominates maverick”
We Want Picks picks Genaro Valdéz VALUE
“lock of the week he dominates maverick”
KU
Kunath picks Matt Frevola
“i'm very low on Matt Frevola this week i think even if their prices were swapped if Genaro Valdéz was 8 700. for vola was 7 500 i'd still be telling you to pick Genaro Valdéz that's how confident i am in a knockout in this spot just based on what we've seen lately from Matt Frevola i just can't trust that guy”
Kunath picks Matt Frevola
“i'm very low on Matt Frevola this week i think even if their prices were swapped if Genaro Valdéz was 8 700. for vola was 7 500 i'd still be telling you to pick Genaro Valdéz that's how confident i am in a knockout in this spot just based on what we've seen lately from Matt Frevola i just can't trust that guy”
HB
Half The Battle picks Matt Frevola VALUE
“i think he's going to pull it out with his hustle in his heart”
$1.50
Half The Battle picks Matt Frevola VALUE
“i think he's going to pull it out with his hustle in his heart”
$1.50
AM
Artem MMA picks Matt Frevola
“i'm actually going to go with matt rivola i'm going to go with the guy that uh he may be a big favorite but he is actually on a two fight losing streak i think he's going to be able to turn it around on this one here”
Artem MMA picks Matt Frevola
“i'm actually going to go with matt rivola i'm going to go with the guy that uh he may be a big favorite but he is actually on a two fight losing streak i think he's going to be able to turn it around on this one here”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Matt Frevola VALUE
“i got jack della uh mad elena to win the fight”
Walk The Line MMA picks Matt Frevola VALUE
“i got jack della uh mad elena to win the fight”
WM
Walk The Line MMA picks Genaro Valdéz VALUE
“i'm gonna side with gennaro valdez here”
Walk The Line MMA picks Genaro Valdéz VALUE
“i'm gonna side with gennaro valdez here”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Frevola11-5-1
L
Nelson
Oct '25
L
Ziam
Sep '24
L
Denis
Nov '23
W
Dober
May '23
W
Azaitar
Nov '22
Valdéz10-3
L
Frevola
Jan '22