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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Morales v Smolka Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus6 picks · conf 18/99
Morales 4
2 Smolka
MUWW pick Morales
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Morales 16-10 VS 17-9 Smolka
5'7" height 5'9"
136 lb weight 136 lb
70" reach 69"
35 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.0 strikes landed / min 4.7
36% striking accuracy 47%
4.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
53% striking defence 53%
0.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
30% takedown accuracy 35%
65% takedown defence 32%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Vince Morales VALUE “i'm sticking with Vince Morales” $2.35
WP We Want Picks picks Louis Smolka VALUE “i've got a bet on Louis Smolka to win 8 500 hours is probably a decent value” $86.00
WP We Want Picks picks Vince Morales “luis smoke is a should be a bigger favor than this it's two strikers they're gonna go at it luis smoka doesn't have the raw power that Vince Morales does”
WP We Want Picks picks Louis Smolka VALUE “i like Louis Smolka and minus 150.” $1.67
WP We Want Picks picks Louis Smolka VALUE “so i'm gonna go with Louis Smolka here i see him avoiding the big shots working in wrestling outpacing to a win” $1.67
WP We Want Picks picks Louis Smolka VALUE “i like louis smoker to win this fight” $86.00
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Louis Smolka “it takes Louis Smolka”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Vince Morales VALUE “i'm going to take smoker to win this fight” $1.71
SD Santino DeFranco picks Louis Smolka VALUE “i think honestly this is almost a gimme fight for smolka um maybe get him back on track”
GP Greedo Plays picks Louis Smolka “i think Louis Smolka is going to win this fight i like it by decision”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Vince Morales “i'm gonna side with Vince Morales”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Vince Morales VALUE “i like Vince Morales here i think he gets the win by decision i feel like he could beat Louis Smolka in this spot” $2.25
Recent form last five, most recent first
Morales16-10
L Thicknesse Decision · R3 May '26
L Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Smith Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Lapilus Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Johns Decision · R3 Nov '22
Smolka17-9
L Grant KO/TKO · R3 May '22
L Morales KO/TKO · R1 Dec '21
W Quiñónez KO/TKO · R2 Dec '20
L Kenney Submission · R1 May '20
W MacDonald KO/TKO · R1 Sep '19