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UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
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AT DH Tsarukyan vs HookerMain Card · Lightweight BM IG Muhammad vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight VO AM Oezdemir vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight JH MO Hermansson vs OrolbaiMain Card · Welterweight AP AA Perez vs AlmabayevPreliminary Card · Flyweight BG LR Grad vs RileyPreliminary Card · Featherweight AY RC Yakhyaev vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight TU KH Ulanbekov vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight BA AT Almakhan vs TopuriaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight IN RL Naurdiev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight NA SR Aliev vs RockPreliminary Card · Lightweight ND SI Dalby vs IzagakhmaevPreliminary Card · Welterweight MB DF Bujło vs FreemanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight WC SG Cortes-Acosta vs GazievMain Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Machado Garry over Muhammad · Welterweight Our fair value$1.35 Betsson pays above fair $1.40
Where to back Machado Garry best price · region · EV vs fair $1.35
US BetOnline.ag $1.38 +2%
UK Virgin Bet $1.38 +2%
EU Betsson $1.40 +4%
AU Unibet $1.38 +2%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.39
Consensus185 picks · conf 99/99
Muhammad 37
148 Machado Garry
WEDMCL pick Muhammad
How it endsmethod calls · Machado Garry · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $3.61
Decision 10 $2.17
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Muhammad 24-5 VS 15-0 Machado Garry
5'11" height 6'3"
171 lb weight 171 lb
72" reach 74"
37 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 5.5
47% striking accuracy 55%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 3.2
59% striking defence 52%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
46% takedown accuracy 55%
77% takedown defence 69%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market74% vs 71%
Consensus148 of 185 analysts
Sharpest angleMachado Garry by Decision — 10 of 16 method calls
Recommendation Back Machado Garry @ $1.40 · fair $1.35 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
FI FightCircuit picks Ian Machado Garry VALUE “Ian Machado Garry by 3027 decision.”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “we got Belal Belal Muhammad versus Machado NOT_IN_ROSTER_39. ... I'm going with Gary in this one.” $3.20
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Ian Machado Garry “I'm taking Ian Machado Garry.”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Ian Machado Garry “I'm going for Ian Machado Garry on this one to beat Belal Muhammad”
ES etoft21 sports picks Ian Machado Garry VALUE “I'm going to have to go with Ian Machado Garry”
AM Anchor MMA picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “I got Belal Muhammad by masterclass unanimous decision”
MC MMA CTRL picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “I think Ian Machado Garry is going to get the job done via decision.”
FF Four Ounce Fanatic picks Belal Muhammad “Belal Muhammad to win this fight”
FA Faustlife19 picks Ian Machado Garry “So, for my prediction, I got Ian Machado Garry.”
SS SledgeHammer Sports picks Ian Machado Garry VALUE “I am going with Ian Machado Garry Mashado Ian Machado Garry to beat NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 Muhammad in this fight.”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Ian Machado Garry “I think Ian Machado Garry has a really good showing in and I feel like Ian Machado Garry will be next”
BG Bettor in Green picks Belal Muhammad VALUE “I like Belal Muhammad here. I actually do like Belal Muhammad here. Plus 220. Uh, bets on Belal Muhammad. Sharp movement. ... It's a decision victory here. So, give me Belal Muhammad” $3.20
Recent form last five, most recent first
Muhammad24-5
L Bonfim Decision · R5 Jun '26
L Garry Decision · R3 Nov '25
L Maddalena Decision · R5 May '25
W Edwards Decision · R5 Jul '24
W Burns Decision · R5 May '23
Machado Garry15-0
W Muhammad Decision · R3 Nov '25
W Prates Decision · R5 Apr '25
L Rakhmonov Decision · R5 Dec '24
W Page Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Neal Decision · R3 Feb '24