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UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
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AT DH Tsarukyan vs HookerMain Card · Lightweight BM IG Muhammad vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight VO AM Oezdemir vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight JH MO Hermansson vs OrolbaiMain Card · Welterweight AP AA Perez vs AlmabayevPreliminary Card · Flyweight BG LR Grad vs RileyPreliminary Card · Featherweight AY RC Yakhyaev vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight TU KH Ulanbekov vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight BA AT Almakhan vs TopuriaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight IN RL Naurdiev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight NA SR Aliev vs RockPreliminary Card · Lightweight ND SI Dalby vs IzagakhmaevPreliminary Card · Welterweight MB DF Bujło vs FreemanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight WC SG Cortes-Acosta vs GazievMain Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Almabayev over Perez · Flyweight Our fair value$1.47 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $1.53
Where to back Almabayev best price · region · EV vs fair $1.47
US BetOnline.ag $1.53 +4%
UK LiveScore Bet $1.50 +2%
EU Coolbet $1.51 +3%
AU Unibet $1.50 +2%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.52
Consensus139 picks · conf 99/99
Perez 36
103 Almabayev
BMSDBF pick Perez
How it endsmethod calls · Almabayev · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $23.50
Submission 2 $11.75
Decision 13 $1.81
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Perez 26-10 VS 23-3 Almabayev
5'6" height 5'4"
128 lb weight 125 lb
65" reach 65"
34 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 2.1
46% striking accuracy 56%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 1.0
58% striking defence 59%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 5.1
46% takedown accuracy 50%
77% takedown defence 50%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 1.7
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market68% vs 65%
Consensus103 of 139 analysts
Sharpest angleAlmabayev by Decision — 13 of 16 method calls
Recommendation Back Almabayev @ $1.53 · fair $1.47 +4% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Asu Almabayev VALUE “We've got Alex Perez uh versus Alu Asu Almabayev. ... We have got Alex Perez coming in as a plus 164 underdog and NOT_IN_ROSTER_21 Asu Almabayev coming in a minus 196 favorite.” $1.51
GM GLO MMA picks Alex Perez VALUE “I'm going to go and pick a suit to get this done via decision.”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Alex Perez “I'm going to go with Alex Perez just win.”
VM Voice of MMA picks Alex Perez VALUE “I'll be taking Alex Perez to win it.”
FF Four Ounce Fanatic picks Alex Perez “I'm going to pick Alex Perez to win”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Asu Almabayev “Asu Almabayev is going to take this one by decision in my opinion.”
BG Bettor in Green picks Asu Almabayev “with you here in Asu Almabayev of money line. Asu Almabayev Perez money lines”
RE RealMNPicks picks Asu Almabayev “Asu Almabayev is 22 and3. Relentless wrestler”
MN MNPicks picks Asu Almabayev “taking Asu Almabayev at 82%.”
BE BetFighter picks Asu Almabayev “but I think Asu Almabayev will win.”
LO LorenzoPredicts picks Asu Almabayev “I will go Asu Almabayev”
JM JTM MMA picks Asu Almabayev “Alex Perez is a punching bag of versus Asu Almabayev... Asu Almabayev by submission in the”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Perez26-10
W Johnson KO/TKO · R1 Jan '26
L Almabayev Submission · R3 Nov '25
L Taira KO/TKO · R2 Jun '24
W Nicolau KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
L Mokaev Decision · R3 Mar '24
Almabayev23-3
W Johnson Submission · R3 Jun '26
W Perez Submission · R3 Nov '25
W Ochoa Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Kape KO/TKO · R3 Mar '25
W Nicolau Decision · R3 Oct '24