MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Choose a fight to analyse
AT DH Tsarukyan vs HookerMain Card · Lightweight BM IG Muhammad vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight VO AM Oezdemir vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight JH MO Hermansson vs OrolbaiMain Card · Welterweight AP AA Perez vs AlmabayevPreliminary Card · Flyweight BG LR Grad vs RileyPreliminary Card · Featherweight AY RC Yakhyaev vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight TU KH Ulanbekov vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight BA AT Almakhan vs TopuriaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight IN RL Naurdiev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight NA SR Aliev vs RockPreliminary Card · Lightweight ND SI Dalby vs IzagakhmaevPreliminary Card · Welterweight MB DF Bujło vs FreemanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight WC SG Cortes-Acosta vs GazievMain Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Grad over Riley · Featherweight Our fair value$3.29 PlayUp pays above fair $3.35
Where to back Grad best price · region · EV vs fair $3.29
US BetAnything $3.30 +0%
UK Betway $3.10 -6%
EU Betsson $3.30 +0%
AU PlayUp $3.35 +2%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.06
Consensus126 picks · conf 99/99
Grad 41
85 Riley
RLPTSY pick Grad
How it endsmethod calls · Grad · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $6.59
Submission 1 $13.18
Decision 1 $13.18
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Grad 14-2 VS 12-0 Riley
5'8" height 5'9"
146 lb weight 145 lb
70" reach 69"
30 age 27
Orthodox stance Orthodox
6.3 strikes landed / min 0.0
47% striking accuracy 0%
10.2 strikes absorbed / min 0.0
49% striking defence 0%
2.8 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
42% takedown accuracy 0%
0% takedown defence 0%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market30% vs 30%
Consensus41 of 126 analysts
Sharpest angleGrad by KO/TKO — 2 of 4 method calls
Recommendation Back Grad @ $3.35 · fair $3.29 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Luke Riley VALUE “I'm going to be going with uh with Luke Riley on this one. I just think >> I just think he's in a ton of uh ton of fun fights.” $1.37
GM GLO MMA picks Luke Riley VALUE “I'm picking Luke Riley to get this done. Be a decision.”
GM GLO MMA picks Bogdan Grad VALUE “I'm picking Luke Riley to get this done. Be a decision.”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Bogdan Grad “I'm going to take Bogdan Grad”
VM Voice of MMA picks Bogdan Grad VALUE “I got to be taking Luke Riley here by KO.”
VM Voice of MMA picks Luke Riley VALUE “I got to be taking Luke Riley here by KO.”
MC MMA CTRL picks Luke Riley VALUE “Luke Riley is going to get the job done by finish over Bogdan Grad.”
FF Four Ounce Fanatic picks Bogdan Grad “I will be picking Bogdan Grad ... pick Bogdan Grad”
UP UFC FIGHT PASS picks Luke Riley “My pick for perhaps fight of the weekend, NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 and Ngatchou returning to Cage Warriors.”
DO DonDaDa02 picks Luke Riley “I think Luke Riley is going to win this matchup.”
MN MNPicks picks Luke Riley “I'm taking Luke Riley at 73%.”
BE BetFighter picks Luke Riley “I'm predicting Luke Riley will win by decision.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Grad14-2
L Riley KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
L Naimov Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Alexander KO/TKO · R2 Feb '25
Riley12-0
W Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Grad KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25