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JG
PP
Gaethje vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight
SO
SY
O'Malley vs YadongMain Card · Bantamweight
WC
DL
Cortes-Acosta vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
AA
JS
Allen vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight
NK
MB
Krylov vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
UN
DF
Nurmagomedov vs FigueiredoPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Perez vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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Silva vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JH
DF
Hokit vs FreemanEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
AG
AP
Gautier vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight
AF
TM
Fugitt vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
PP
Gaethje vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight
SO
SY
O'Malley vs YadongMain Card · Bantamweight
WC
DL
Cortes-Acosta vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
AA
JS
Allen vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight
NK
MB
Krylov vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
UN
DF
Nurmagomedov vs FigueiredoPreliminary Card · Catchweight
AP
CJ
Perez vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
NS
RN
Silva vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JH
DF
Hokit vs FreemanEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
AG
AP
Gautier vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight
AF
TM
Fugitt vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Gaethje
over Pimblett · Lightweight
Our fair value$2.83
pays above fair
$3.10
Best prices · Gaethje
Caesars · US
$3.10
Unibet (UK) · UK
$3.00
NordicBet · EU
$3.00
SportsBet · AU
$2.99
Where to back Gaethje
best price · region · EV vs fair $2.83
US
Caesars
$3.10
+9%
Caesars
$3.10
+9%
UK
Unibet (UK)
$3.00
+6%
Unibet (UK)
$3.00
+6%
EU
NordicBet
$3.00
+6%
NordicBet
$3.00
+6%
AU
SportsBet
$2.99
+6%
SportsBet
$2.99
+6%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$3.12
How it endsmethod calls · Gaethje · crowd line
KO/TKO
12
$5.67
Submission
4
$17.00
Decision
8
$8.50
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gaethje 27-5
VS
23-3 Pimblett
5'11"
height
5'10"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
73"
37
age
31
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
7.4
strikes landed / min
4.9
57%
striking accuracy
53%
5.8
strikes absorbed / min
3.8
54%
striking defence
40%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
0.9
34%
takedown accuracy
25%
68%
takedown defence
52%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
2.1
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market35% vs 32%
Consensus201 of 494 analysts
Sharpest angleGaethje by KO/TKO — 12 of 24 method calls
Recommendation
Back Gaethje @ $3.10 · fair $2.83
+9% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MA
Mustafa Abutair picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I can see Paddy Pimblett finishing him on the ground. Whether it's TKO, whether he hurts him on the feet then submits him. ... I think Paddy Pimblett goes out there and gets his thing. Get he does his thing, gets his hand raised.”
Mustafa Abutair picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I can see Paddy Pimblett finishing him on the ground. Whether it's TKO, whether he hurts him on the feet then submits him. ... I think Paddy Pimblett goes out there and gets his thing. Get he does his thing, gets his hand raised.”
IM
Industry Plant MMA picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“you taking Justin Gaethje down”
Industry Plant MMA picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“you taking Justin Gaethje down”
FI
FightCircuit picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
FightCircuit picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
FI
FightCircuit picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
FightCircuit picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Paddy Pimblett
“I placed the bet on Paddy Pimblett. So there is no mysterious coming I have Paddy Pimblett to win in that main event.”
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Paddy Pimblett
“I placed the bet on Paddy Pimblett. So there is no mysterious coming I have Paddy Pimblett to win in that main event.”
LI
liltoaster picks Justin Gaethje
“Riley, who are you picking? Justin Gaethje. Okay, that's who I'm picking.”
liltoaster picks Justin Gaethje
“Riley, who are you picking? Justin Gaethje. Okay, that's who I'm picking.”
LI
liltoaster picks Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy Pimblett, bro. Paddy Pimblett. He's just better.”
liltoaster picks Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy Pimblett, bro. Paddy Pimblett. He's just better.”
FI
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Justin Gaethje
“Uh you know I'm going with Justin Gaethje of course.”
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Justin Gaethje
“Uh you know I'm going with Justin Gaethje of course.”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going with Justin. Justin got to win this fight.”
$2.90
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going with Justin. Justin got to win this fight.”
$2.90
CO
CouchWarrior1 picks Paddy Pimblett
“I've got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett winning this by a finish probably either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.”
CouchWarrior1 picks Paddy Pimblett
“I've got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett winning this by a finish probably either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.”
JA
Javianfighttalk picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“Justin Gaethje winning this. I think think I'm going to go with Justin Gaethje”
Javianfighttalk picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“Justin Gaethje winning this. I think think I'm going to go with Justin Gaethje”
TP
The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going to have to lean with Patty Pimpblelet here.”
The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going to have to lean with Patty Pimpblelet here.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23
Pimblett23-3
L
Gaethje
Jan '26
W
Chandler
Apr '25
W
Green
Jul '24
W
Ferguson
Dec '23
W
Gordon
Dec '22