Choose a fight to analyse
JG
PP
Gaethje vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight
SO
SY
O'Malley vs YadongMain Card · Bantamweight
WC
DL
Cortes-Acosta vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
AA
JS
Allen vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight
NK
MB
Krylov vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
UN
DF
Nurmagomedov vs FigueiredoPreliminary Card · Catchweight
AP
CJ
Perez vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
NS
RN
Silva vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JH
DF
Hokit vs FreemanEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
AG
AP
Gautier vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight
AF
TM
Fugitt vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
PP
Gaethje vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight
SO
SY
O'Malley vs YadongMain Card · Bantamweight
WC
DL
Cortes-Acosta vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
AA
JS
Allen vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight
NK
MB
Krylov vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
UN
DF
Nurmagomedov vs FigueiredoPreliminary Card · Catchweight
AP
CJ
Perez vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight
NS
RN
Silva vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Flyweight
JH
DF
Hokit vs FreemanEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
AG
AP
Gautier vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight
AF
TM
Fugitt vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE
We back
Johnson
over Perez · Catchweight
Our fair value$1.53
pays above fair
$1.63
Best prices · Johnson
DraftKings · US
$1.62
Betfair Sportsbook · UK
$1.62
Pinnacle · EU
$1.63
PlayUp · AU
$1.60
Where to back Johnson
best price · region · EV vs fair $1.53
US
DraftKings
$1.62
+6%
DraftKings
$1.62
+6%
UK
Betfair Sportsbook
$1.62
+6%
Betfair Sportsbook
$1.62
+6%
EU
Pinnacle
$1.63
+7%
Pinnacle
$1.63
+7%
AU
PlayUp
$1.60
+5%
PlayUp
$1.60
+5%
PM
PM
Polymarket crowd exchange
$1.64
How it endsmethod calls · Johnson · crowd line
KO/TKO
12
$4.07
Submission
2
$24.43
Decision
18
$2.71
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Perez 26-10
VS
19-8 Johnson
5'6"
height
5'9"
128 lb
weight
126 lb
65"
reach
70"
34
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Switch
4.2
strikes landed / min
4.2
46%
striking accuracy
47%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.1
58%
striking defence
54%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
46%
takedown accuracy
66%
77%
takedown defence
55%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
Hit “Run deep research” to pull the latest from X and the news.
What the numbers say
Model vs market66% vs 61%
Consensus168 of 230 analysts
Sharpest angleJohnson by Decision — 18 of 32 method calls
Recommendation
Back Johnson @ $1.63 · fair $1.53
+7% EDGE
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MA
Mustafa Abutair picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“Charles Johnson by second round TKO. I just think Alex Pres has no chin after that weight cut, man. ... Charles Johnson by second round TKO.”
Mustafa Abutair picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“Charles Johnson by second round TKO. I just think Alex Pres has no chin after that weight cut, man. ... Charles Johnson by second round TKO.”
FI
FightCircuit picks Alex Perez VALUE
“I think Charles Johnson is going to have the heavier attacks and won a decision victory”
FightCircuit picks Alex Perez VALUE
“I think Charles Johnson is going to have the heavier attacks and won a decision victory”
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Charles Johnson
Keep it a Buck Media picks Charles Johnson
LI
liltoaster picks Charles Johnson
“Um I'm going Charles Johnson.”
liltoaster picks Charles Johnson
“Um I'm going Charles Johnson.”
FI
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Alex Perez
“I I got Alex Perez on this one... I'm going with Alex Perez on this one.”
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Alex Perez
“I I got Alex Perez on this one... I'm going with Alex Perez on this one.”
FI
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Charles Johnson
“Charles Johnson. That's the guy who knocked out NOT_IN_ROSTER_3. I think he's explosive... I need to take Charles Johnson by a KO.”
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Charles Johnson
“Charles Johnson. That's the guy who knocked out NOT_IN_ROSTER_3. I think he's explosive... I need to take Charles Johnson by a KO.”
BI
BigMoneyMMA picks Charles Johnson
“I'm gonna go Charles Johnson, 5-0, should be highly ranked, higher than number 13 to get a win over Alex Perez, who I don't think he's got the he's he doesn't have it anymore. His last KO win was Na uh Matteas Nicolo... So, I'm gonna go final prediction, Charles Johnson by decision.”
BigMoneyMMA picks Charles Johnson
“I'm gonna go Charles Johnson, 5-0, should be highly ranked, higher than number 13 to get a win over Alex Perez, who I don't think he's got the he's he doesn't have it anymore. His last KO win was Na uh Matteas Nicolo... So, I'm gonna go final prediction, Charles Johnson by decision.”
CO
CouchWarrior1 picks Charles Johnson
“I do believe that Charles Johnson is just going to pick away at old mate from the distance, keep his distance, and this is going to be a probably a 29 28 uh 30 27 decision to Charles Johnson.”
CouchWarrior1 picks Charles Johnson
“I do believe that Charles Johnson is just going to pick away at old mate from the distance, keep his distance, and this is going to be a probably a 29 28 uh 30 27 decision to Charles Johnson.”
MT
Mic Talks picks Alex Perez
“Alex Perez NOT_IN_ROSTER_72 NOT_IN_ROSTER_73 Alex Perez Alexander Hernandez. Alex Perez NOT_IN_ROSTER_74, Charles Johnson”
Mic Talks picks Alex Perez
“Alex Perez NOT_IN_ROSTER_72 NOT_IN_ROSTER_73 Alex Perez Alexander Hernandez. Alex Perez NOT_IN_ROSTER_74, Charles Johnson”
TP
The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going to predict third round knockout for Charles Johnson in that one.”
The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going to predict third round knockout for Charles Johnson in that one.”
MM
MMAFightingonSBN picks Charles Johnson
“I suspect he will lose”
MMAFightingonSBN picks Charles Johnson
“I suspect he will lose”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Perez26-10
W
Johnson
Jan '26
L
Almabayev
Nov '25
L
Taira
Jun '24
W
Nicolau
Apr '24
L
Mokaev
Mar '24
Johnson19-8
L
Almabayev
Jun '26
W
Silva
Mar '26
L
Perez
Jan '26
W
Kavanagh
Aug '25
L
Temirov
Mar '25