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UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
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SS AH Strickland vs HernandezMain Card · Middleweight DI MC Ige vs CostaMain Card · Featherweight SS AD Spivac vs DelijaMain Card · Heavyweight ZR MP Reese vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight OO AI Osbourne vs IdirisPreliminary Card · Flyweight AC LG Coria vs GurulePreliminary Card · Flyweight NC JE Cornolle vs EdwardsPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JL YV Leavitt vs VallePreliminary Card · Featherweight JM CJ Miller vs JudicePreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight GN UM Neal vs MedićMain Card · Welterweight JS JH Smith vs HarrellMain Card · Welterweight RB PS Brahimaj vs SorianoPreliminary Card · Welterweight PR JL Rowe vs LebosnoyaniPreliminary Card · Welterweight CL CN Leal vs NjokuaniPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Reese over Pereira · Middleweight Our fair value$2.29 BetOnline.ag pays above fair $2.50
Where to back Reese best price · region · EV vs fair $2.29
US BetOnline.ag $2.50 +9%
UK Unibet (UK) $2.45 +7%
EU Pinnacle $2.41 +5%
AU PointsBet (AU) $2.40 +5%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.56
Consensus241 picks · conf 99/99
Reese 126
115 Pereira
WPOCWR pick Reese
How it endsmethod calls · Reese · crowd line
KO/TKO 10 $5.95
Submission 5 $11.91
Decision 10 $5.95
None 1 $59.54
Polymarket props · Reese KO/TKO $4.65 O/U 0.5 Rounds O $1.27 U $4.65O/U 1.5 Rounds O $1.69 U $2.44
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Reese 10-3 VS 32-14 Pereira
6'4" height 6'1"
185 lb weight 186 lb
77" reach 73"
32 age 32
Switch stance Orthodox
4.6 strikes landed / min 5.5
36% striking accuracy 49%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
49% striking defence 59%
1.7 takedowns / 15 min 1.3
69% takedown accuracy 59%
64% takedown defence 59%
1.7 submissions / 15 min 1.9
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market44% vs 40%
Consensus126 of 241 analysts
Sharpest angleReese by KO/TKO — 10 of 26 method calls
Recommendation Back Reese @ $2.50 · fair $2.29 +9% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TO The MMA Outlaw picks Michel Pereira VALUE “I think the styles just really match up for Yadier Dval to have a good fight.” $1.50
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Zachary Reese “Personally, I'm also a fan of Zachary Reese winning against Michel Pereira.” $2.35
ML MMA LIFE picks Zachary Reese VALUE “Zachary Reese's a little smarter. So, give me Zachary Reese to win”
MM MMAInstigator picks Michel Pereira “I'm taking Michel Pereira by finish in the first round.”
MT Mark Berry TMA picks Michel Pereira VALUE $2.50
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Michel Pereira VALUE “Michel Pereira KO at plus 190 after the here or anything on the Michel Pereira side.”
IE IENJOYFIGHTS picks Zachary Reese VALUE “I think Zachary Reese by decision”
IE IENJOYFIGHTS picks Michel Pereira VALUE “I think Michel Pereira by decision”
DU Dirty Blonde UFC picks Michel Pereira VALUE “I am going to go with Michel Pereira”
MJ Mukbang with jj picks Zachary Reese VALUE “I think Zachary Reese is a lock for this card um by finish to be honest.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Michel Pereira “you trust Michel Pereira.”
JC Jaiden Cable picks Michel Pereira “I'm gonna go Michel Pereira”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Reese10-3
L Pereira Decision · R3 Feb '26
W McVey Submission · R2 Nov '25
W Todorović Decision · R3 May '25
L Bekoev KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25
W Medina Decision · R3 Aug '24
Pereira32-14
L Magomedov Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Reese Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Daukaus KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Magomedov Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Hernandez KO/TKO · R5 Oct '24