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UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
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AS YZ Sterling vs ZalalMain Card · Featherweight RG AH García vs HernandezMain Card · Lightweight MJ RB Jackson vs BarcelosMain Card · Bantamweight ND JE Dumont vs EdwardsMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight MB RS Buchecha vs SpannMain Card · Heavyweight TA JP Alencar vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RV EM Vieira vs McConicoPreliminary Card · Middleweight MS MM Silva vs MontaguePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JM SD McVey vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight DG AM Grant vs MartinettiMain Card · Bantamweight JF CD Filho vs DurdenPreliminary Card · Bantamweight FM LB Marshall vs BrennanPreliminary Card · Lightweight MG VV Griffin vs ValenzuelaPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Hernandez over García · Lightweight Our fair value$1.66 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.92
Where to back Hernandez best price · region · EV vs fair $1.66
US DraftKings $1.89 +14%
UK LeoVegas $1.87 +13%
EU Pinnacle $1.92 +16%
AU SportsBet $1.88 +13%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.92
Consensus148 picks · conf 99/99
García 35
113 Hernandez
BJHMUP pick García
How it endsmethod calls · Hernandez · crowd line
KO/TKO 4 $10.38
Decision 21 $1.98
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
García 11-6-1 VS 18-8 Hernandez
6'1" height 5'9"
154 lb weight 155 lb
76" reach 72"
— age 33
Switch stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 2.6
51% striking accuracy 49%
4.8 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
65% striking defence 64%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
33% takedown accuracy 52%
82% takedown defence 58%
1.4 submissions / 15 min 1.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market60% vs 52%
Consensus113 of 148 analysts
Sharpest angleHernandez by Decision — 21 of 25 method calls
Recommendation Back Hernandez @ $1.92 · fair $1.66 +16% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WP Working Fans Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez “I think the TKO streak continues. I think both guys are going to engage. So, I'll pick Alexander Hernandez by round two TKO.”
CA CageSideConnor picks Alexander Hernandez “I'm picking Alexander Hernandez.”
MD MMA DUMMY picks Alexander Hernandez “We're taking [ __ ] Alexander Alexander Hernandez.”
SP SportsLine picks Rafa García “I think it's a good win for Rafa García, but I'm putting an asterisk next to it and I'm backing this fight, I believe.”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Alexander Hernandez VALUE “I went with Alexander Hernandez...moneyline bet for me”
CM CornerTalk MMA picks Alexander Hernandez “So on Alexander Hernandez a different fight.”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Rafa García “might find a way to win this fight by decision. Rafa García this fight by decision. Rafa García this fight by decision.”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Alexander Hernandez “Alexander Hernandez has been looking really, Alexander Hernandez is just better. that uh Alexander Hernandez has been with Alexander Hernandez to win. I think”
TP The Surprise Jab Podcast picks Alexander Hernandez “going with Alexander Hernandez here”
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Rafa García “I'm going to go Rafa García here.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Rafa García “fight we got to wager on is Rafa García knocking out Rafa García. ... if someone's getting knocked out, Rafa García's”
SL Summit Valley Sports LLC picks Rafa García “give me Rafa García. I think his against Rafa García, who's no joke. Um, yeah, give me Rafa García. I like I I rate Rafa García very highly with his boxing Rafa García for the upset. Grant, Rafa García, Norma Dumont, and Banger of the week has to be Rafa García in this fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
García11-6-1
W Hernandez Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Gordon KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Pichel Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Dawson KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Guida Decision · R3 Apr '23
Hernandez18-8
L García Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Ferreira KO/TKO · R2 Sep '25
W Hooper KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Holobaugh Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Hubbard Decision · R3 Oct '24