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UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
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AS YZ Sterling vs ZalalMain Card · Featherweight RG AH García vs HernandezMain Card · Lightweight MJ RB Jackson vs BarcelosMain Card · Bantamweight ND JE Dumont vs EdwardsMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight MB RS Buchecha vs SpannMain Card · Heavyweight TA JP Alencar vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RV EM Vieira vs McConicoPreliminary Card · Middleweight MS MM Silva vs MontaguePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JM SD McVey vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight DG AM Grant vs MartinettiMain Card · Bantamweight JF CD Filho vs DurdenPreliminary Card · Bantamweight FM LB Marshall vs BrennanPreliminary Card · Lightweight MG VV Griffin vs ValenzuelaPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Griffin over Valenzuela · Welterweight Our fair value$2.19 LeoVegas (SE) pays above fair $2.25
Where to back Griffin best price · region · EV vs fair $2.19
US Caesars $2.15 -2%
UK William Hill (UK) $2.20 +0%
EU LeoVegas (SE) $2.25 +3%
AU PlayUp $2.12 -3%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $2.17
Consensus99 picks · conf 84/99
Griffin 47
52 Valenzuela
TTKSTT pick Griffin
How it endsmethod calls · Griffin · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $12.04
Decision 9 $2.68
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Griffin 20-12 VS 12-4 Valenzuela
5'11" height 5'9"
170 lb weight 170 lb
76" reach 72"
40 age 32
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min —
49% striking accuracy —
3.8 strikes absorbed / min —
57% striking defence —
1.4 takedowns / 15 min —
41% takedown accuracy —
68% takedown defence —
0.3 submissions / 15 min —
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market46% vs 44%
Consensus47 of 99 analysts
Sharpest angleGriffin by Decision — 9 of 11 method calls
Recommendation Back Griffin @ $2.25 · fair $2.19 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RX RX picks Max Griffin VALUE “Give me Max Griffin.”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Victor Valenzuela “I'm going Victor Valenzuela”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Max Griffin “I can't bet Max Griffin because he's 40, but I can pick him... I think maybe Max Griffin can win this fight.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Max Griffin “little bonus bet on Max Griffin to win here. Max Griffin gets a win”
TP The Surprise Jab Podcast picks Victor Valenzuela “go with Victor Valenzuela here”
MA MaybeLuissMMA picks Victor Valenzuela “Victor Valenzuela by decision as well”
AH Alonzo Hernandez picks Victor Valenzuela “I'm gonna go Victor Valenzuela, bro. ... I'm gonna go Victor Valenzuela with a first”
TC The Finz Chats picks Max Griffin “I think this is a great spot for Max Griffin Max Griffin. ... I'm not buying Victor Victor Valenzuela. ... I just don't think Victor Valenzuela is good.”
SL Summit Valley Sports LLC picks Max Griffin “I'm gonna go Max Griffin. ... give me Max Griffin.”
MM MMAnomaly picks Max Griffin “Max Griffin here. He's my dog of switched my pick to Eric McConico. Victor Valenzuela, he's a good fighter, knock out Max Griffin, I don't see a path to victory for him”
LM LF MMA picks Victor Valenzuela “give Max Griffin a fight. He's not really ready for Father Time is undefeated and I think Victor Valenzuela can probably finish here.”
SO Sorvain picks Victor Valenzuela “I'm taking a slight flyer on Victor Valenzuela over Max Griffin”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Griffin20-12
L Valenzuela Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Curtis Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Chiesa Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Wells Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Morales Decision · R3 Jul '23
Valenzuela12-4
W Griffin Decision · R3 Apr '26