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UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
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AS YZ Sterling vs ZalalMain Card · Featherweight RG AH García vs HernandezMain Card · Lightweight MJ RB Jackson vs BarcelosMain Card · Bantamweight ND JE Dumont vs EdwardsMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight MB RS Buchecha vs SpannMain Card · Heavyweight TA JP Alencar vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RV EM Vieira vs McConicoPreliminary Card · Middleweight MS MM Silva vs MontaguePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight JM SD McVey vs DumasPreliminary Card · Middleweight DG AM Grant vs MartinettiMain Card · Bantamweight JF CD Filho vs DurdenPreliminary Card · Bantamweight FM LB Marshall vs BrennanPreliminary Card · Lightweight MG VV Griffin vs ValenzuelaPreliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE We back Polastri over Alencar · Women'S Strawweight Our fair value$1.41 Pinnacle pays above fair $1.45
Where to back Polastri best price · region · EV vs fair $1.41
US BetOnline.ag $1.44 +2%
UK Paddy Power $1.44 +2%
EU Pinnacle $1.45 +3%
AU Bet Right $1.43 +2%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.46
Consensus125 picks · conf 99/99
Alencar 29
96 Polastri
BPRMNK pick Alencar
How it endsmethod calls · Polastri · crowd line
KO/TKO 6 $7.73
Decision 27 $1.72
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Alencar 7-1-1 VS 14-5 Polastri
5'1" height 5'2"
115 lb weight 116 lb
58" reach 64"
35 age 28
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 4.4
28% striking accuracy 52%
4.8 strikes absorbed / min 4.4
52% striking defence 48%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.8
13% takedown accuracy 51%
50% takedown defence 87%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.8
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market71% vs 69%
Consensus96 of 125 analysts
Sharpest anglePolastri by Decision — 27 of 33 method calls
Recommendation Back Polastri @ $1.45 · fair $1.41 +3% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RX RX picks Julia Polastri “I'm going Julia Polastri here. I think she should win this.”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Julia Polastri “I like Polastri here and I think she's live to win this fight as the fight goes on.”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Julia Polastri “I'm just going to go back to the well on Julia Polastri KO you back to the well on Julia Polastri KO you back to the well on Julia Polastri KO you know, round two and round three... I'll do the two-three on Julia Polastri.”
SP SportsLine picks Talita Alencar “to Talita Alencar versus Julia Polastri, to not go the distance at plus 200.” $3.00
WP We Want Picks picks Talita Alencar “So, I'm actually going to pick Talita Alencar here.”
FF Fight Fiend Forecast picks Julia Polastri “calling a a decision here for the favorite Julia Polastri”
TP The Franchise Player picks Julia Polastri “I am pretty confident Julia Polastri.”
BM Bruce Oldham MMA picks Talita Alencar “I'm going to go with Talita Alencar, but that's that's a we're no one cares. We're just going to move on. She's the underdog. We're going underdog. She's going to get beat. I'm going with Julia Polastri. Switched. Very very tough decision there.”
TP The Surprise Jab Podcast picks Julia Polastri “going to go with Julia Polastri”
SS Silly Gilly Goose MMA Show picks Talita Alencar VALUE “I'm going to go Talita Alencar by decision.”
MA MaybeLuissMMA picks Julia Polastri “I'm going to take Polish Street by decision, boys.”
AH Alonzo Hernandez picks Julia Polastri “I'm going to say she breaks that pattern and ends up getting the dub. So, I'm going go Julia Polastri win via TKO in the third round.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Alencar7-1-1
W Polastri Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Carnelossi Submission · R3 Nov '25
W Demopoulos Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Luciano Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Santos Decision · R3 Dec '23
Polastri14-5
L Alencar Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Kowalkiewicz KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
L Godinez Decision · R3 Mar '25
W McKenna Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Knutsson Decision · R3 Jun '24