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UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
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BEST PRICE We back Figueiredo over Sandhagen · Bantamweight Our fair value$5.27 Coolbet pays above fair $5.40
Where to back Figueiredo best price · region · EV vs fair $5.27
US BetMGM $5.00 -5%
UK Virgin Bet $4.60 -13%
EU Coolbet $5.40 +2%
AU SportsBet $5.10 -3%
Consensus105 picks · conf 87/99
Sandhagen 84
21 Figueiredo
MSNRDT pick Sandhagen
How it endsmethod calls · Figueiredo · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $110.69
Submission 10 $11.07
Decision 8 $13.84
None 2 $55.35
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Sandhagen 18-6 VS 25-6-1 Figueiredo
5'11" height 5'5"
134 lb weight 138 lb
70" reach 68"
34 age 38
Switch stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 4.2
53% striking accuracy 44%
2.5 strikes absorbed / min 4.7
52% striking defence 46%
1.2 takedowns / 15 min 2.2
66% takedown accuracy 37%
83% takedown defence 58%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 1.2
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market19% vs 19%
Consensus21 of 105 analysts
Sharpest angleFigueiredo by Submission — 10 of 21 method calls
Recommendation Back Figueiredo @ $5.40 · fair $5.27 +2% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Cory Sandhagen VALUE “I'm going to go and pick Cory Senhagen to get this done by decision.”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Deiveson Figueiredo VALUE $5.10
TD The Rambling Dad picks Cory Sandhagen VALUE
VI VinceMMA picks Cory Sandhagen VALUE “I'm going Cory Sandhagen by dominant decision or late TKO”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Cory Sandhagen “I gotta go with Corey.” $1.20
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Cory Sandhagen VALUE
CM Coty MMA picks Cory Sandhagen “I think Cory Sandhagen wins.”
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Deiveson Figueiredo VALUE “a aposta é no valor que a gente vai apostar na vitória de Davidson Figueiredo”
RW Ryan Wohl picks Cory Sandhagen “I have Cory Sandhagen winning this fight and beating Deiveson Figueiredo” $1.17
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Cory Sandhagen VALUE “You know my pick. Cory Sanhagen as the masses are.”
CZ Czaleo picks Cory Sandhagen “I picked Cory Sandhagen Sandhagen ... I'm going to say Corey catches Deiveson Figueiredo with a flying knee”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Cory Sandhagen VALUE “yo siento que sí, minuto a minuto va a ser una pelea para Cory Sandhagen. Lo veo ganando por decisión, quizás tres round a dos, tres, cuatro round a uno.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Sandhagen18-6
L Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Oct '25
W Figueiredo KO/TKO · R2 May '25
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R5 Aug '24
W Font Decision · R5 Aug '23
W Vera Decision · R5 Mar '23
Figueiredo25-6-1
L Yadong Submission · R2 May '26
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Jackson Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Sandhagen KO/TKO · R2 May '25
L Yan Decision · R5 Nov '24