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UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
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CS DF Sandhagen vs FigueiredoMain Card · Bantamweight RR BN Ridder vs NickalMain Card · Middleweight DR SP Rodriguez vs PonzinibbioMain Card · Welterweight MJ DM Jackson vs MarcosMain Card · Bantamweight SS CS Sidey vs SmothermanMain Card · Bantamweight MJ JS Jones vs StephensMain Card · Lightweight YS MT Santos vs TatePreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight AB RL Bekoev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight GR MR Robertson vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight QL GB Le vs BolañosPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TP DM Petersen vs MayesPreliminary Card · Heavyweight JM IP Miller vs PetrovićPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE We back Mayes over Petersen · Heavyweight Our fair value$4.31 BetMGM pays above fair $5.00
Where to back Mayes best price · region · EV vs fair $4.31
US BetMGM $5.00 +16%
UK Unibet (UK) $4.70 +9%
EU Unibet (EU) $4.70 +9%
AU Unibet $4.70 +9%
Consensus55 picks · conf 71/99
Petersen 40
15 Mayes
TbTBEJ pick Petersen
How it endsmethod calls · Mayes · crowd line
KO/TKO 2 $4.31
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Petersen 10-4 VS 11-7 Mayes
6'1" height 6'6"
246 lb weight 260 lb
74" reach 81"
31 age 34
Southpaw stance Orthodox
4.6 strikes landed / min 3.5
55% striking accuracy 43%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.8
54% striking defence 46%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 0.7
36% takedown accuracy 38%
78% takedown defence 58%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market23% vs 20%
Consensus15 of 55 analysts
Sharpest angleMayes by KO/TKO — 2 of 2 method calls
Recommendation Back Mayes @ $5.00 · fair $4.31 +16% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Thomas Petersen VALUE $1.34
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Thomas Petersen “It does happen a lot. Thomas Petersen decision in the heavyweights” $1.31
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Thomas Petersen “eu vejo o Thomas Petersen vencendo o Don'Tale Mayes”
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks Thomas Petersen VALUE “Eu acho que a Thomas Petersen vai entrar pro jogo de queda... vai sair com a vitória”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Thomas Petersen “I'll say Thomas Petersen finds a way to win this fight. And uh I favor Thomas Peterson maybe on a decision.” $1.33
CZ Czaleo picks Thomas Petersen “going to go with Thomas Petersen Petersen. gonna say it's a decision”
LE LemonMMA picks Thomas Petersen “I just think Thomas Petersen Petersen's just better than Don'Tale Mayes.”
IM IMIGHTBEWRONG MMA picks Don'Tale Mayes VALUE “I'm going to go Dantel May. I'm going to go Don'Tale Mayes.”
KM KZ MMA picks Thomas Petersen “official pick is going to be Thomas Petersen.”
RP Rparqs picks Thomas Petersen “I've got Thomas Petersen minus 260. Any anybody who can wrestle versus Dantel Maize is probably going to win.” $1.38
MM MMAWeekly.com picks Don'Tale Mayes “Don'Tale Mayes takes on Thomas Petersen”
WP We Want Picks picks Thomas Petersen “the reality is Thomas Petersen Petersen should win this fight.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Petersen10-4
W Pat Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Petrino KO/TKO · R3 Oct '25
W Mayes Decision · R3 May '25
L Gaziev KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
W Usman Decision · R3 Jul '24
Mayes11-7
L Petersen Decision · R3 May '25
L Walker Submission · R1 Feb '25
L Gaziev Decision · R3 Aug '24
W Machado Decision · R3 Apr '24
L Nascimento Decision · R3 Nov '23